Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SURFACE FRONT... THOUGH
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS HOUR... HAS BECOME ALMOST
STATIONARY... STRETCHING SW TO NE... SOUTH OF I 44. HIGH POPS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
CONTINUE TO APPEAR VALID... AS ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT... WITH AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE ON
TRACK AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 00Z WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL OK TO
SW MO MOVING GRADUALLY EAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT STALLS AND MVFR CEILINGS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONT CU CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR KCFV-KTUL-KSNL
ON SOUTHEAST..HIGHLY LIKELY TO BREAK CAP AND ERUPT INTO
SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  EVENING
OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDER EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT AR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END UP SOUTHWEST  NORTHEAST THROUGH
THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST CORNER AR.
UPPER FLOW  NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THROUGH EASTER
WEEKEND WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MET TEXTBOOK
CLASSIC PROLONGED  WET HEAVY RAIN PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE QUASI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE OSCILLATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTS TEMPERATURE CHALLENGES.

THIS DROUGHT BUSTING PERIOD...AT LEAST EASTERN OK..WILL
COME AT A PRICE. ABUNDANT CAPE... AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL NOT ONLY MAKE RAIN..BUT PERIODS OF SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL.  AT THIS TIME TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL HOLD ON FLOOD WATCH  UNTIL AFTER THE INITIAL RAIN
TONIGHT.   PRIME HEAVY RAIN AXIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS VIA
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BE NEAR INTERSTATE 44. FAR NORTH-
EAST OK MOST AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
727 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING... GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... WHICH
CURRENTLY LIES PARALLEL AND ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY THIS
EVENING... THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG AND EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS SOME AREAS WITH THE POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FINALLY
PUSHES IT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AS STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ010-OKZ069-230200-
ADAIR OK-WASHINGTON AR-
835 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ADAIR

AT 836 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARIETTA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BARON...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...
BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...CLYDE
AND CANEHILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3595 9410 3577 9409 3579 9470 3592 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 267DEG 36KT 3585 9458

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             3 S BENTONVILLE         36.33N 94.21W
04/22/2011  M2.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITEFIELD              35.25N 95.24W
04/22/2011  E60 MPH          HASKELL            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND GUST TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
933 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW STIGLER           35.27N 95.17W
04/22/2011  M70 MPH          HASKELL            OK   MESONET

            OKLAHOMA MESONET MEASURED WIND GUST OF 70.9 MPH FROM 301
            DEGREES.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW STIGLER           35.27N 95.17W
04/22/2011  M59 MPH          HASKELL            OK   MESONET

            MEASURED OKLAHOMA MESONET WIND GUST OF 58.6 MPH FROM 300
            DEGREES.

&&

NMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1002 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-074>076-230345-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN
AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
1002 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN
     LATIMER

AT 1001 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COWLINGTON TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
MCCURTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SEBASTIAN...SOUTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...NORTHERN LE
FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 1045 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3509 9417 3507 9423 3504 9422 3494 9430
      3495 9437 3493 9440 3502 9513 3539 9480
      3538 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 278DEG 36KT 3531 9475 3508 9495