Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 00Z WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL OK TO
SW MO MOVING GRADUALLY EAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT STALLS AND MVFR CEILINGS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONT CU CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR KCFV-KTUL-KSNL
ON SOUTHEAST..HIGHLY LIKELY TO BREAK CAP AND ERUPT INTO
SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  EVENING
OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDER EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT AR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END UP SOUTHWEST  NORTHEAST THROUGH
THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST CORNER AR.
UPPER FLOW  NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THROUGH EASTER
WEEKEND WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MET TEXTBOOK
CLASSIC PROLONGED  WET HEAVY RAIN PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE QUASI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE OSCILLATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTS TEMPERATURE CHALLENGES.

THIS DROUGHT BUSTING PERIOD...AT LEAST EASTERN OK..WILL
COME AT A PRICE. ABUNDANT CAPE... AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL NOT ONLY MAKE RAIN..BUT PERIODS OF SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL.  AT THIS TIME TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL HOLD ON FLOOD WATCH  UNTIL AFTER THE INITIAL RAIN
TONIGHT.   PRIME HEAVY RAIN AXIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS VIA
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BE NEAR INTERSTATE 44. FAR NORTH-
EAST OK MOST AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  66  55  67 /  70  70  90  90
FSM   64  78  63  77 /  60  70  50  60
MLC   66  75  64  76 /  50  40  50  50
BVO   55  64  52  63 /  70  60  80  90
FYV   61  72  58  72 /  70  80  80  60
BYV   60  70  57  72 /  70  80  80  60
MKO   62  71  58  72 /  70  70  80  70
MIO   56  65  54  66 /  70  70  90  90
F10   62  70  57  72 /  70  70  70  70
HHW   68  81  68  81 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
727 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING... GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... WHICH
CURRENTLY LIES PARALLEL AND ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY THIS
EVENING... THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG AND EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS SOME AREAS WITH THE POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FINALLY
PUSHES IT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AS STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
814 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HAIL             3 W WESTVILLE           35.99N 94.62W
04/22/2011  E0.75 INCH       ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 E TAHLEQUAH           35.92N 94.95W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW STONES TO THE
            SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
826 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             WESTVILLE               35.99N 94.57W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
827 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             WESTVILLE               35.99N 94.57W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ010-OKZ069-230200-
ADAIR OK-WASHINGTON AR-
835 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ADAIR

AT 836 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARIETTA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BARON...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...
BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...CLYDE
AND CANEHILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3595 9410 3577 9409 3579 9470 3592 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 267DEG 36KT 3585 9458