Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH AND TO ADJUST POPS
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRYLINE HAS FOR ALL INTENT AND PURPOSES STALLED JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TULSA AND POINTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
DRYLINE STILL HAS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN END UP
TOWARD THE MIAMI AREA. CELLS THAT HAVE GONE UP ALONG THE DRYLINE
SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CELL SPLITS...BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OFF OF THE BOUNDARY AS
OF YET. IF A RIGHT MOVER CAN MATERIALIZE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR.

NOW TO THE QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION NOW ORGANIZING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER WEST TX...WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO NW AR
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER NW AR THIS EVENING
BASED ON THIS REASONING.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  72  43  76 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   59  72  45  76 /  70  20   0   0
MLC   55  73  44  77 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   49  71  41  75 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   55  68  38  72 /  60  20   0   0
BYV   53  67  40  71 /  70  30   0   0
MKO   55  71  43  75 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   51  69  39  74 /  30  20   0   0
F10   55  72  44  75 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   60  75  45  77 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

OKZ058-062-063-110145-
DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES

AT 809 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
CHLOETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...
GROVE...BERNICE...SPAVINAW...STRANG...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3685 9463 3649 9462 3624 9506 3643 9516
      3652 9504 3652 9501 3654 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 230DEG 45KT 3644 9491

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

OKZ066>068-070-110230-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
853 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN CHEROKEE

AT 853 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BOYNTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ERAM...HULBERT...WAGONER...CHOSKA...
TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...OKAY...REDBIRD...BOYNTON...JAMESVILLE...TAFT
AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3594 9503 3557 9578 3569 9587 3608 9544
      3608 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 223DEG 45KT 3569 9568