Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 10, 2011Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 10, 2011, 11:32 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 10, 2011, 11:32 PM CDT (04:32 UTC)
Expired: Apr 11, 2011, 12:04 AM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 10, 7:28 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 601 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1468 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

801 
WUUS54 KTSA 110432
SVRTSA
ARC015-110515-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0053.110411T0432Z-110411T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1131 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF BERRYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUDD...
  BERRYVILLE...OSAGE...RULE...URBANETTE...GREEN FOREST...
  CARROLLTON...OAK GROVE AND ALPENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 9329 3613 9353 3615 9354 3617 9357
      3619 9357 3620 9361 3626 9361 3628 9366
      3631 9366 3631 9373 3650 9354 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 239DEG 43KT 3630 9368

$$

LACY

2 follow-up statements

203 
WWUS54 KTSA 110454
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

ARC015-110515-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-110411T0515Z/
CARROLL AR-
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 1152 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK GROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9330 3631 9340 3638 9347 3643 9354
      3650 9354 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 239DEG 43KT 3643 9340

$$

LACY

730 
WWUS54 KTSA 110504
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

ARC015-110514-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-110411T0515Z/
CARROLL AR-
1204 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3625 9330 3631 9340 3638 9347 3643 9354
      3650 9354 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 239DEG 43KT 3649 9327

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 10, 7:57 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 10, 7:57 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH AND TO ADJUST POPS
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRYLINE HAS FOR ALL INTENT AND PURPOSES STALLED JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TULSA AND POINTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
DRYLINE STILL HAS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN END UP
TOWARD THE MIAMI AREA. CELLS THAT HAVE GONE UP ALONG THE DRYLINE
SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE...THERE HAS BEEN SOME
CELL SPLITS...BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OFF OF THE BOUNDARY AS
OF YET. IF A RIGHT MOVER CAN MATERIALIZE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD OCCUR.

NOW TO THE QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION NOW ORGANIZING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER WEST TX...WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO NW AR
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER NW AR THIS EVENING
BASED ON THIS REASONING.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  72  43  76 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   59  72  45  76 /  70  20   0   0
MLC   55  73  44  77 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   49  71  41  75 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   55  68  38  72 /  60  20   0   0
BYV   53  67  40  71 /  70  30   0   0
MKO   55  71  43  75 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   51  69  39  74 /  30  20   0   0
F10   55  72  44  75 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   60  75  45  77 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 10, 9:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
925 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO OKEMAH.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO OKEMAH.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE IF A RIGHT MOVER CAN
MATERIALIZE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOP A HALF INCH TO AS MUCH AS
AN INCH LOCALLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY NOT CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN LINE AND MOVE OUT OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FIRE DANGER HAS DECREASED AS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
		POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP THE
FIRE DANGER HIGH AND NEAR VERY HIGH WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A HIGH OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME...THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 10, 10:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

OKZ068-069-110400-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

AT 1014 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF COOKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...BARON...
CHRISTIE...PROCTOR...WESTVILLE...BALLARD...WATTS...COOKSON AND ELDON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3617 9456 3576 9449 3567 9493 3579 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 238DEG 47KT 3581 9484

LACY

Local storm report, Apr 10, 10:39 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             BARON                   35.92N 94.62W
04/10/2011  E0.75 INCH       ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

Special weather statement, Apr 10, 10:48 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

OKZ049-073-075-110430-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1048 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG...NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

AT 1048 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
BLANCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGGINS...GOWEN...BLANCO...
HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW AND BACHE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3451 9579 3452 9578 3451 9573 3455 9568
      3459 9568 3459 9588 3460 9589 3466 9589
      3504 9554 3479 9523 3448 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 225DEG 46KT 3460 9578

LACY

Local storm report, Apr 10, 11:07 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             BARON                   35.92N 94.62W
04/10/2011  E2.00 INCH       ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

Special weather statement, Apr 10, 11:22 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

OKZ075-110445-
LATIMER OK-
1122 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LATIMER

AT 1122 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILBURTON...HIGGINS...DAMON...PANOLA
AND RED OAK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3476 9552 3480 9552 3507 9524 3507 9522
      3496 9496 3495 9500 3492 9500 3469 9544
      3469 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 231DEG 44KT 3478 9543

Local storm report, Apr 10, 11:27 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEBBERS FALLS           35.51N 95.13W
04/10/2011  M58 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

PBS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 10, 10:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	51 min
Apr 10, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	29 min
Apr 10, 11:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	28 min
Apr 10, 11:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	46 min
Apr 11, 12:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	33 min
Apr 11, 12:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	27 min
Apr 11, 12:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	34 min
Apr 11, 1:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.