Tornado Watch 881

Issued

Nov 14, 2011, 3:04 PM CST (21:04 UTC)

Expired

Nov 14, 2011, 8:12 PM CST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

50%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

40%

Ten or more severe wind reports

40%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

20%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

5%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 2314Nov 14, 12:27 PM CST
• Mesoscale Discussion 2318Nov 14, 5:32 PM CST

976 
WWUS20 KWNS 142058
SEL1
SPC WW 142058
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA
       WESTERN KENTUCKY
       SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 879...WW 880...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AND AREA VAD DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
/60-80 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-350 M2/S2.  WHILE STORMS
MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO ORGANIZE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...MEAD

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2011Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2011Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.