Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2313

November 14, 201120 counties in Illinois; 59 counties in Indiana; 14 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 14, 2011, 11:24 AM CST for 20 counties in Illinois; 59 counties in Indiana; 14 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 14, 2011, 11:24 AM CST (17:24 UTC)
Expired
Nov 14, 2011, 1:00 PM CST
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 93 counties

Champaign County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Macon County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Bartholomew County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Decatur County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Preble County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-11-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-11-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 161 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1725 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
95 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
161 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
311 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

434 
ACUS11 KWNS 141724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141724 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 141724Z - 141900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE
FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF
IND.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW
INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS
WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS
INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY.

DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR
TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.

..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38898904 39828912 40998837 41238687 41598438 41518376
            40938348 40008399 39538461 39048568 38838631 38698734
            38578833 38898904

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 14, 4:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Coles, Cumberland, Edgar, Shelby63 min
Nov 14, 11:41 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCChampaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford and 18 more7 hr
Nov 14, 12:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 14 more2 hr
Nov 14, 3:04 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 15 more5 hr
Nov 14, 3:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Edgar and 3 more2 hr
Nov 14, 5:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Edgar and 23 more88 min
Nov 14, 1:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Carroll, Champaign, Coshocton, Crawford, Delaware and 22 more63 min
Nov 14, 2:29 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Crawford and 26 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.