Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT AND CUMMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PER TORNADO WATCH
881 TIL 10 PM. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES HAD INCREASED BY MID
AFTERNOON TO AROUND/IN EXCESS OF 300 ACROSS S IL AND SW IN SO QUITE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHEASTWARD PROPOGATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT. A 500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNEDAY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. THE
END RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES HERE...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH
ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FA.

HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. TWEEKED TEMPS...BOTH MAX
AND MIN...DOWN A BIT THRU TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE QUAD STATE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY MORNING HAVING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

ENOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY TO PRODUCE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
CONVEYOR BELT /NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE/...PER THE
PREFERRED ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED VIA THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO UTILIZED A DIFFERENTIAL BLEND
OF POPS FOR SHOWERS VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST ARE NEXT
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A
SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS ELEVATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO
ADDED A DIFFERENTIAL POP FOR SHOWERS VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. BY
NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND
SHARPENS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER TAF FORECASTS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH WINDS AND
CEILINGS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MEASURABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE KCGI TAF SITE WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FRONTAL BOUNDAY...SO INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE
11Z-14Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE WORST CONDITIONS...LIFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR KPAH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE 18Z TUESDAY AND
00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION/NEAR TERM...SMITH
PUBLIC...SHANKLIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
708 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151315-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
708 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PERRYVILLE TO POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO
WITH A REMOTE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
LEAVES CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH TODAY COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY THOSE MOTORISTS
TRAVELLING ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS. BOATERS SHOULD USE EXTREME
CAUTION ON AREA WATERWAYS TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
ON TUESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
LEAVES CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1042 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-142200-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1042 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINDS GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS COULD REACH NEAR 45 MPH OR HIGHER ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORRIDOR OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF ANY RAIN WILL
LIKELY STRETCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI...HARRISBURG ILLINOIS AND OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. THE TIME OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FROM 11 AM CST THROUGH 3 PM CST.

DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SUCH AS TRACTOR TRAILERS AND
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES...WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTY IN
STEERING...REGARDLESS OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE ROADWAYS.

RECREATIONAL BOATERS AND OPERATORS OF OTHER WATERCRAFT ON AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD RECONSIDER ANY TRAVEL ON WATERWAYS TODAY.
WHITE CAPS AND CHOPPY WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALL LAKES AND
RIVERS...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTED WATERWAYS.

ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE UNDERTAKEN TODAY. ANY FLAMES
COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY AND CAUSE HAZARD TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SMITH