Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583

July 2, 201119 counties in Indiana; 43 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 2, 2011, 2:24 PM EDT for 19 counties in Indiana; 43 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2011, 2:24 PM EDT (18:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2011, 11:00 PM EDT
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 62 counties

Allen County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Alcona County, MI, Allegan County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 50%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

47 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 2:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Gladwin, Ogemaw, Roscommon	62 min
Jul 2, 3:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay	50 min
Jul 2, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay, Saginaw	57 min
Jul 2, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay	34 min
Jul 2, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Arenac, Gladwin	36 min
Jul 2, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Huron, Tuscola	77 min
Jul 2, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Saint Joseph	57 min
Jul 2, 4:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Arenac, Iosco, Ogemaw	39 min
Jul 2, 5:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	14 min
Jul 2, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Van Buren	18 min
Jul 2, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee	53 min
Jul 2, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ingham	25 min
Jul 2, 5:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Sanilac	78 min
Jul 2, 5:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Jackson	48 min
Jul 2, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Marshall, Saint Joseph, Starke	62 min
Jul 2, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer, Tuscola	77 min
Jul 2, 5:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass	25 min
Jul 2, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, LaGrange	54 min
Jul 2, 5:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Pulaski, Starke	51 min
Jul 2, 5:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, Kosciusko, Marshall, Saint Joseph	65 min
Jul 2, 6:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, LaGrange	55 min
Jul 2, 6:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Fulton, Marshall, Pulaski, Starke	60 min
Jul 2, 6:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, Kosciusko, Noble, Whitley	52 min
Jul 2, 6:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Saint Clair, Sanilac	66 min
Jul 2, 6:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Oakland	60 min
Jul 2, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Livingston, Oakland	66 min
Jul 2, 6:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer, Macomb, Saint Clair	63 min
Jul 2, 6:44 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Pulaski	46 min
Jul 2, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Pulaski, White	59 min
Jul 2, 6:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Fulton, Kosciusko, Marshall, Miami, Pulaski and 2 more	67 min
Jul 2, 7:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Allen, DeKalb, Noble, Whitley	60 min
Jul 2, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw, Wayne	81 min
Jul 2, 7:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	White	40 min
Jul 2, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Macomb, Saint Clair	37 min
Jul 2, 7:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Pulaski, White	47 min
Jul 2, 7:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	79 min
Jul 2, 8:01 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	IWX	Cass, Fulton, Kosciusko, Miami, Pulaski, Wabash and 1 more	6 hr
Jul 2, 8:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Monroe, Wayne	82 min
Jul 2, 8:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Jackson	42 min
Jul 2, 8:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	White	34 min
Jul 2, 8:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Huntington, Wabash	38 min
Jul 2, 8:43 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	IWX	Pulaski, White	6 hr
Jul 2, 8:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw, Wayne	38 min
Jul 2, 9:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	White	33 min
Jul 2, 9:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee, Monroe	35 min
Jul 2, 9:08 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	DTX	Wayne	2 hr
Jul 2, 9:25 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	IWX	White	5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3122 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 648 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -18 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 2:06 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Benton, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 21 more	54 min
Jul 2, 3:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter	7 hr
Jul 2, 7:17 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Benton, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 21 more	58 min
Jul 1, 9:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw and 2 more	5 hr
Jul 1, 11:04 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette and 1 more	116 min
Jul 2, 12:38 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette and 1 more	97 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.