Alert archive / Indiana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Northern Indiana

July 2, 20118 counties in Indiana

NWS Northern Indiana issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2011, 6:53 PM EDT for 8 counties in Indiana. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2011, 6:53 PM EDT (22:53 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2011, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cass County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Wabash County, IN, White County, IN

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 2:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2626 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -129 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1099 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:17 PM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:17 PM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ISO/SCT STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE AS A SFC TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE FA
IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDGE
FLATTENS. THIS WEAK SFC TROUGH...JUST NW OF THE FA AS OF 18Z...WILL
LIKELY WORK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SW LOWER MI 19-21Z AND SEWD
FROM THERE 21-03Z. ALSO OF NOTE IS A LAKE BREEZE NOW SITUATED JUST
NW OF SBN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A WEAK CAP IN
THE 900-800 HPA LAYER...SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY / SFC THETA-E
360K AND SFC DEWPOINTS 74-76F...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY HAS
SUPPORTED EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW BTW 5000-6000
J/KG. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY GIVES CREDENCE TO SPC SLIGHT RISK
THIS AFTN EVEN WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE MID LVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. H8-H6 MID LEVEL DRY LAYER COMBINED WITH A WELL-MIXED DRY
ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DOWNDRAFT MODULATED CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...PLENTIFUL CAPE THROUGH
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE FAVOR AN ISO LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY AT
INITIATION WITH EL'S NEAR 50 KFT. USED A HRRR/SPC 4 KM FOR TIMING OF
SCT CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION BTW
19-22Z IN NW AND 22-02Z IN THE SE.

NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY/COOLER/AND LESS HUMID SUNDAY AS WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF ANY APPROACHING LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW INVOF WY/MT/ID PER AFTN
WATER VAPOR...WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD IN WESTERLIES UNDER A
DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE TRACKS
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE LOCALLY GIVEN
LOW LVL RIDGING IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY LOCKED UP OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
ACTIVE NW FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK...BUT CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED IMPULSES EJECTING ESE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOLLOWING
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH. STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FLOW
ON TUE-WED...WITH A LL THETA-E SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD...SUPPORTING
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP...FOLLOWED BY SFC COLD FRONT PRECIP CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD A STRONGER HUDSON BAY
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DAYS 5-7. THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER AS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SW OF THE
REGION...WITH COOLER/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS CERTAINLY IS A STRONG TREND IN ECMWF/GEM/GFS
PROGS...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL VERY MUCH LOOMS PER THE DETAILS
OF NE PAC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. PREFERENCE
IS TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH KEEP TEMPS AROUND CLIMO...WITH
COOLEST CONDITIONS OVER ZONES CLOSEST TO LK MI. THIS ALSO INCLUDES A
DRY FORECAST DAYS 5-7 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-WED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS PERIOD. DID ADJUST POPS TUE NIGHT
PER A THETA-E ADV REGIME WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER IN THE LATE TUE DAY
PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE PERIOD AND LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT THE TUE
DAYTIME PERIOD DRY. MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A
SFC TROUGH...WITH AMPLE LL FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE
PROGGED IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS TYPE
CONVECTION...WILL HANG ON TO LOWER POPS SPREAD OVER A LONGER PERIOD
UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TIMING CAN BE
ASCERTAINED. HAVE PREFERRED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IF SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION IS
SEEN.

THUR-SAT...OPTED FOR A SOLUTION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH FITS THE HEIGHT PATTERN OF LATE /STRONGER SE
CANADIAN NEG HEIGHT ANOMALY/. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DATABASE WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NUMBERS /HIGHS
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S/.

&&

.AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS /

VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE. SFC TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...BOTH ALONG THE MAIN SFC
TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE ALREADY SHOWING UP JUST NORTH OF SBN.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BTW 19-21Z AROUND
SBN...ORGANIZING AND MORPHING SEWD TOWARDS FWA BTW 21-01Z. LAKE
SHADOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION SOUTH OF SBN SO CONTINUED WITH A VFR
VCTS/CB MENTION FOR NOW. ADDED A MVFR TEMPO TSRA/3SM GROUP FROM
21-24Z AT FWA. AREAS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
TOMORROW...BEST CHANCES AT FWA CLOSER TO SINKING BOUNDARY AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 4:58 AM EDT, 13 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-030900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 /358 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 93 DEGREE
RANGE COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT
INDEX VALES TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-030900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:11 PM EDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
611 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             CASSOPOLIS              41.91N  86.01W
07/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM DIME SIZED TO QUARTER SIZED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101109

NDM

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:20 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     BREMEN                  41.45N  86.15W
07/02/2011  M46 MPH          MARSHALL           IN   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101110

BENTLEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:22 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             1 S WHITE PIGEON        41.78N  85.64W
07/02/2011  M1.00 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101111

SC

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:23 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
623 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             4 NE NORTH JUDSON       41.26N  86.72W
07/02/2011  E0.50 INCH       STARKE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101112

NDM

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:44 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOURBON                 41.30N  86.12W
07/02/2011  M53 MPH          MARSHALL           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101113

SC

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:50 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 NW BREMEN             41.47N  86.18W
07/02/2011  E0.70 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101114

NDM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Saint Joseph	57 min
Jul 2, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Marshall, Saint Joseph, Starke	62 min
Jul 2, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, LaGrange	54 min
Jul 2, 5:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	LaPorte, Pulaski, Starke	51 min
Jul 2, 5:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, Kosciusko, Marshall, Saint Joseph	65 min
Jul 2, 5:56 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	IWX	LaPorte, Marshall, Saint Joseph, Starke	3 hr
Jul 2, 6:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, LaGrange	55 min
Jul 2, 6:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Fulton, Marshall, Pulaski, Starke	60 min
Jul 2, 6:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	IWX	Elkhart, LaGrange	3 hr
Jul 2, 6:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, Kosciusko, Noble, Whitley	52 min
Jul 2, 6:44 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Pulaski	46 min
Jul 2, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Pulaski, White	59 min
Jul 2, 7:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Allen, DeKalb, Noble, Whitley	60 min
Jul 2, 7:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	White	40 min
Jul 2, 7:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Pulaski, White	47 min
Jul 2, 5:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	14 min
Jul 2, 5:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Indiana, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.