Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Detroit, MI

352 
WWUS53 KDTX 021929
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

MIC017-022000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110702T2000Z/
BAY MI-
329 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BAY COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BENTLEY...OR NEAR RHODES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNT FOREST AROUND 335 PM EDT.
  PINCONNING AROUND 350 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  PINCONNING...         BENTLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 8405 4399 8404 4392 8404 4392 8391
      4391 8390 4388 8391 4385 8390 4383 8391
      4383 8417 4400 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 275DEG 26KT 4394 8415
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MM/SF

548 
WWUS53 KDTX 021946
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

MIC017-022000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110702T2000Z/
BAY MI-
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BAY COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BENTLEY...OR 5 MILES WEST OF STANDISH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF FAR 
NORTHERN BAY COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4400 8405 4399 8404 4392 8404 4392 8391
      4391 8390 4388 8391 4385 8390 4383 8391
      4383 8417 4400 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 261DEG 26KT 4396 8404
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MM/SF

246 
WWUS53 KDTX 021958
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

MIC017-022008-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110702T2000Z/
BAY MI-
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR 
NORTHERN BAY COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4400 8405 4399 8404 4392 8404 4392 8391
      4391 8390 4388 8391 4385 8390 4383 8391
      4383 8417 4400 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 261DEG 26KT 4397 8392

$$

MM/SF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
231 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011...CORRECTED

.SHORT TERM...

OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S HAS LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 4000 J/KG AS
OF 2 PM. COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTION TRYING TO GO UP (GRR ISSUED SVR)...AS
CAP IS BECOMING MARGINAL (SEE 18Z DTX SOUNDING). ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...HAIL...AND LOCALIZED WET
MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE STATE
RIGHT AROUND 00Z...ENDING THE THREAT FOR STORMS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S AS
STEADY STREAM OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES SUNDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY. WNW
FLOW ALOFT HAS LITTLE ENERGY IN IT EITHER. ONLY REAL ISSUE IS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LATE SUNDAY TO ABOUT 12Z MONDAY.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER WY AND WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE STATE. AT WORST THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INTO PLAY FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE SUNDAY AND THE 4TH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  GUIDANCE TEMPS
WERE CLOSE AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THAT.

500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE STATIONED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL NOT PROCEED INTO THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
COME TOGETHER ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWEST TO EXIT SOUTHEAST. BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEAR
SKIES THURSDAY AS A 1016MB SFC HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. THAT DOMINATING HIGH WILL CONTROL THE REGION AND KEEP
TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES HEDGE TOWARD CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES LOOKS TO BE
CONTINUING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND
COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW OF
WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1217 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

//DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP)...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...10
KNOTS OR LESS.

FOR DTW...TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
22-00Z...BUT POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 21Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT COLD LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE. LIKELY TIMING 22-00Z.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FEET
  COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AND LOW
  CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FEET AGAIN
  OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OFF LAKE
  HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....RBP/MM
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-030900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ONE INCH
OR GREATER IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 25 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH THERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT
LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464-030900-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ONE
INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60
MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT
LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LHZ361-362-030900-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ONE
INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60
MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).