Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389

May 27, 20115 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 27, 2011, 2:00 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2011, 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2011, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 52 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Androscoggin County, ME, Cumberland County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Knox County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Waldo County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Essex County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 3:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Hamilton, Herkimer	59 min
May 27, 4:22 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BTV	Essex	4 hr
May 27, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Essex	58 min
May 27, 5:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Warren	64 min
May 27, 5:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Orange, Rutland, Windsor	64 min
May 27, 5:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Franklin, Somerset	46 min
May 27, 5:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Essex	58 min
May 27, 6:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Franklin, Somerset	41 min
May 27, 6:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Piscataquis	40 min
May 27, 6:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Essex	28 min
May 27, 6:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BTV	Essex	4 hr
May 27, 6:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Coos, Grafton	35 min
May 27, 6:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Lamoille, Orange, Orleans, Washington	63 min
May 27, 6:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Essex, Lamoille, Orleans, Washington	59 min
May 27, 6:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Windsor	40 min
May 27, 6:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Coos	35 min
May 27, 6:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GYX	Somerset	33 min
May 27, 6:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Piscataquis	47 min
May 27, 7:05 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Essex, Franklin, Lamoille, Orange, Orleans and 1 more	3 hr
May 27, 7:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Penobscot, Piscataquis	32 min
May 27, 7:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Penobscot	26 min
May 27, 7:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Essex, Orange, Washington	63 min
May 27, 7:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Caledonia, Essex	34 min
May 27, 7:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Fulton, Herkimer, Montgomery	56 min
May 27, 7:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Aroostook, Penobscot	39 min
May 27, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CAR	Piscataquis	49 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 625 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 1:18 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset	87 min
May 27, 5:49 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Androscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Lincoln, Oxford and 6 more	56 min
May 27, 12:24 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berkshire	96 min
May 27, 12:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison and 5 more	9 hr
May 27, 6:14 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Fulton and 10 more	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maine, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Hampshire, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.