Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Burlington, VT

515 
WGUS71 KBTV 280222
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

VTC005-009-011-015-017-019-023-280232-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110528T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALEDONIA VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-ESSEX VT-
FRANKLIN VT-
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX...ORLEANS AND
CALEDONIA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
AND EASTERN LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT OF HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED...STREAMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ROAD SURFACES MAY BE 
DAMAGED FROM FLOODING...PLEASE OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE SIGNS...THEY 
ARE THERE FOR YOUR SAFETY.

LAT...LON 4499 7153 4490 7150 4475 7162 4459 7153
      4456 7159 4450 7157 4441 7169 4439 7179
      4435 7182 4431 7203 4427 7206 4409 7202
      4397 7211 4393 7278 4402 7274 4404 7277
      4502 7264 4502 7147 4502 7146

$$

HANSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST.
FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 417 PM EDT FRIDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS INCREASING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND POINTS SOUTHWEST.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 389 REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8PM FOR THIS AREA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT COMES
TO AN END. MORE SHOWERY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUGGESTS THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS COME TO AN
END AND THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA...BUT KEPT IT IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 417 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT MEANT FOR INSTABILITY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR...WOULD EXPECT PULSE STORMS TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 238 AM EDT FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. MAIN FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH
SW/CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW REMAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER....A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE PLACE AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT A TRANSITION TOWARD
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AIR MASS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S SUN AND MON...AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +19C TO +20C IN
00Z GFS...LOOKING AT LOW 90S IN THE VALLEYS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE REGIME IN PLACE.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY AS UPR RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. CAN/T RULE OUT SVR WEATHER PROSPECTS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT POTENTIAL WOULD BE GREATER IF TIMING WAS A BIT LATER
THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED /WED AFTN/ TO COINCIDE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...ESPECIALLY WITH 00Z GFS
INDICATING POSSIBLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ON NRN PERIPHERY OF
RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...GFS INDICATES 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING
8 C/KM LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT.

850MB TEMPS DROP ABRUPTLY TO AROUND +4C BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH NW
FLOW AND CAA DURING MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SHARP COOL-DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID-
UPR 60S WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE AS LOW
AS THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S WITH DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS ON A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK
THROUGH NORTHEAST VERMONT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MENTIONED RAIN FOR MSS SLK AND PBG.
BTV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ITS LOCATION. MPV WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
HAVE BE MENTIONED WITH VCTS FROM 21Z TO 02Z. RUT WILL BE IN THE
HIGHEST IMPACT AREA WHERE VOLATILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CEASE AND FOG FORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MPV AND SLK CAN EXPECT LOWER IFR VISIBILITIES WHILE THE OTHER
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE MVFR. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT AT ALL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. MAY BE LOCALLY IFR IN
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TRENDING VFR
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 417 PM EDT FRIDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS MORE HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 417 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECT SLOW RISES ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THURSDAYS RAINFALL AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. LAKE SHOULD REACH 102.5 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FOR BOATERS MANY HAZARDS STILL EXIST. BREAKWATER AND OTHER ROCKS
OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO NAVIGATION MAY BE OBSCURED BY THE HIGH WATER
LEVELS ON THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF DEBRIS REMAIN IN THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER MOUTHS. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...
RECREATIONAL BOATING IS DISCOURAGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BOYD
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
MARINE...EVENSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
206 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NYZ026>031-087-VTZ001>003-005-006-016-017-281815-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
206 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NYZ034-035-VTZ004-007>012-018-019-281815-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
206 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
EASTERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ONE
INCH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE FLASH
FLOODING ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             WATERBURY CENTER        44.38N  72.72W
05/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100223

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             CORNWALL                43.96N  73.21W
05/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       ADDISON            VT   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100224

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             MONTPELIER              44.27N  72.57W
05/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100225

LOCONTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NYZ034-035-VTZ008-009-018-272315-
EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN ESSEX NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN ESSEX NY-
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADDISON...SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM EDT...WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR TICONDEROGA...TO BRIDPORT AND NEW HAVEN.

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND PRODUCE HAIL AS
LARGE AS DIMES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
SHOREHAM...SHOREHAM CENTER...WEST CORNWALL...CORNWALL...MIDDLEBURY...
EAST MIDDLEBURY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4376 7335 4380 7338 4379 7355 4392 7369
      4421 7298 4416 7295 4421 7293 4421 7292
      4395 7279 4389 7285 4388 7288 4390 7288
      4384 7303 4384 7322 4380 7322

NASH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             WORCESTER               44.37N  72.55W
05/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100226

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             BARRE                   44.20N  72.51W
05/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100227

LOCONTO