Mesoscale Discussion 952

Issued

May 25, 2011, 9:54 AM CDT (14:54 UTC)

Expired

May 25, 2011, 11:30 AM CDT

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 369May 25, 10:40 AM CDT
• Tornado Watch 370May 25, 11:10 AM CDT
• Tornado Watch 371May 25, 12:30 PM CDT

375 
ACUS11 KWNS 251455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251454
ARZ000-MOZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MO...WRN AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251454Z - 251630Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN WRN
MO AND WRN AR. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. INITIALLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...A TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF STORM INITIATION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER ERN KS WITH A BROAD
WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MO AND ACROSS ALL
OF AR INTO MS AND WRN TN. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS ANALYZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BUT THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MO AND
WRN AR AROUND 17Z...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS SE MO AND
NE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
65 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
INITIALLY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT AS
THE STORMS MOVE INTO A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF THE MCD AREA BY 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35299386 34589353 34409123 35069028 36079002 37329036
            38009138 38529290 38219351 37769367 36699348 35299386

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.