Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 828
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 20, 2011, 1:52 PM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Nebraska; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 20, 2011, 1:52 PM CDT (18:52 UTC)
- Expired
- May 20, 2011, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Hall County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Webster County, NE, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3052 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 27 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
877
ACUS11 KWNS 201853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-202045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...S-CNTRL NEB...NWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201852Z - 202045Z
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG COLD FRONT WILL HELP FOSTER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY INITIAL RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.
THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH BEING ISSUED BY 21Z IS 60
PERCENT.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A PAIR OF 1003 MB CYCLONES
NEAR RSL AND 30 NNW GAG ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE
CNTRL INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE HEATING HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE MCS OVER THE ERN GREAT PLAINS HAS
GRADUALLY SHIFTED EWD. A NARROW AXIS OF A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S.
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ALONG THE FRONT FROM CNTRL KS
INTO W-CNTRL OK...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING HRRR AND WRF-NMM/NSSL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY BUOYANT UPDRAFTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR.
HOWEVER...VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES INDICATED IN AREA
PROFILERS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE CLUSTER TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE AND SERVE TO TEMPER A
MORE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 05/20/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37209980 38849927 40699918 41049909 41219865 41059823
40469798 38799791 36319878 36059918 36109971 36609990
37209980SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 8:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 29 more | 118 min |
| May 19, 8:46 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 34 more | 6 hr |
| May 19, 11:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 29 more | 2 hr |
| May 20, 9:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Douglas and 9 more | 2 hr |
| May 20, 2:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 30 more | 7 hr |
| May 20, 6:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 27 more | 59 min |
| May 19, 7:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Kiowa and 1 more | 118 min |
| May 19, 11:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Harmon, Jackson, Tillman | 6 hr |
| May 20, 2:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Comanche, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman, Washita | 92 min |
| May 20, 10:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more | 60 min |
| May 20, 11:03 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more | 7 hr |
| May 20, 1:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more | 62 min |
| May 20, 4:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, LeFlore, McCurtain, Pushmataha | 60 min |
| May 20, 5:56 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | McCurtain | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.