Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 752

May 12, 201131 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2011, 2:57 AM CDT for 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 33 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2011, 2:57 AM CDT (07:57 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2011, 3:30 AM CDT
In force
33 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2011-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2151 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2011-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2151 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2314 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

905 
ACUS11 KWNS 120758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120757
TXZ000-120830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG BEND EWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 120757Z - 120830Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE TX BIG BEND EWD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST W OF DRT IN NRN MEXICO...WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TX /JUST N OF BAZ/ AND
THEN INTO SERN TX AND CENTRAL LA /ALONG AND S OF ONGOING STORMS IN
THAT REGION/.  A WIND SHIFT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW TO THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN CRP AND VCT.  THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SRN TX IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE 2000-4000 J PER KG/ AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCING EWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHILE IR AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE N THROUGH NW OF
DRT AND S OF SANDERSON TX NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  THIS IS
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY DCVA GLANCING THIS REGION FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN IMPULSE/JETLET.  GIVEN THE EARLY SIGNS OF UPDRAFTS AND
AGREEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PER 05Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR
AND 00Z ECMWF...A WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE AFFECTED WFOS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29880177 30230168 30970041 30759789 30229722 29069782
            28439875 28199926 28200012 28820057 29180076 29880177

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 7:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Blanco, Bowie, Burnet, Camp and 20 more62 min
May 11, 11:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 27 more65 min
May 12, 3:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kerr, Kinney and 7 more5 hr
May 12, 7:27 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Brooks, Dimmit and 26 more33 min
May 12, 7:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAransas, Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Brooks and 33 more9 hr
May 12, 8:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 22 more59 min
May 12, 9:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque and 53 more6 hr
May 12, 11:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Aransas, Austin, Bee, Brazos, Burleson and 33 more92 min
May 12, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFannin, Grayson, Lamar119 min
May 12, 3:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, Montague, Red River7 hr
May 12, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.