Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 751
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2011, 11:25 PM CDT for 33 counties in Texas. It was in force for 65 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2011, 11:25 PM CDT (04:25 UTC)
- Expired
- May 12, 2011, 12:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 33 counties
Austin County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Comal County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Medina County, TX, Milam County, TX, Real County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 268 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -441 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1482 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 219 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
792
ACUS11 KWNS 120426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120425
TXZ000-120530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 120425Z - 120530Z
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEW WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/PERHAPS EAST-CENTRAL TX.
AN ONGOING SEVERE TSTM NEARING I-35 BETWEEN NEW BRAUNFELS/AUSTIN AS
OF 0415Z HAS EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. SIMILAR TO THIS STORM...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG A SOUTHEAST
SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A RATHER MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH CINH EXPECTED TO ONLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT PER SHORT TERM PROGS. WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM EWX/GRX
REFLECT AMPLE VEERING/WIND SPEEDS FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION/SUPERCELLS...ACCENTUATED BY 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM
SRH...WHICH IMPLIES A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE 00Z NAM/GFS
AND VARIOUS 21Z SREF MEMBERSHIP...IMPLY AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST...AND/OR MORE SO THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE.
..GUYER.. 05/12/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30959736 31739650 31629574 29279573 28800030 29810021
30359783 30959736SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 7:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Blanco, Bowie, Burnet, Camp and 20 more | 62 min |
| May 12, 2:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 25 more | 33 min |
| May 12, 3:18 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bandera, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kerr, Kinney and 7 more | 5 hr |
| May 12, 7:27 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Brooks, Dimmit and 26 more | 33 min |
| May 12, 7:52 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aransas, Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Brooks and 33 more | 9 hr |
| May 12, 8:46 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bastrop, Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 22 more | 59 min |
| May 12, 9:02 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque and 53 more | 6 hr |
| May 12, 11:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Aransas, Austin, Bee, Brazos, Burleson and 33 more | 92 min |
| May 12, 1:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fannin, Grayson, Lamar | 119 min |
| May 12, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, Montague, Red River | 7 hr |
| May 12, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cooke, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.