Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 60
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 31, 2011, 10:36 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 31, 2011, 10:36 PM CST (04:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2011, 4:00 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties
Benton County, AR, Washington County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 31 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 475 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 131 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 156 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
437
ACUS11 KWNS 010436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010436
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN OK AND EXTREME SERN KS INTO MO OZARKS
AND EXTREME NWRN AR.
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 010436Z - 011000Z
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FOR TRANSITIONAL MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY SLEET OVER
NRN PORTIONS OF THIS SWATH...BUT FREEZING RAIN ALONG SRN FRINGES
FROM ERN OK ACROSS NWRN AR AND S-CENTRAL MO. ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE/EXPAND NEWD FROM CENTRAL-NERN OK PORTIONS SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 59...AS EXTENSION/GROWTH OF SAME BASIC REGIME. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT RATES .10-.25 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF RATES NEAR .5 INCH/HOUR BENEATH HEAVIEST BUT
RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE CORES...INCLUDING SPORADIC
THUNDER.
04Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE NEAR MVN...TBN...SGF...30
SSW JLN...MKO...SHIFTING SSEWD ERRATICALLY. COMBINATION OF
CAA...DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND WET-BULB COOLING UNDER PRECIP
AREAS...WILL SHUNT THIS LINE FARTHER INTO SRN MO AND NWRN AR
THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...ANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING RAIN TO ITS S WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
MEANWHILE...MODIFIED OUN/SGF RAOBS AND TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DEPTH OF SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
OCCUR BENEATH SUPERFREEZING LAYER LOCATED ROUGHLY BETWEEN 800-850
MB. THIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING 06Z-10Z TIME FRAME CHARACTERIZED BY
ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...LEADING TO NEAR-SATURATION OF THAT
LAYER...AND ALSO...WEAKENING OF MUCINH WITH MUCAPE IN 100-300 J/KG
RANGE. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 800-900 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER ABOUT 08Z AS WELL...CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO
LIFT. COMBINATION OF SHALLOWER SUPERFREEZING LAYER ALOFT AND DEEPER
POSTFRONTAL LAYER NEAR SFC INDICATES PROGRESSIVELY GREATER SLEET
PROBABILITIES ROUGHLY IN TUL-JLN-COU CORRIDOR...WHILE FREEZING RAIN
PREDOMINATES FARTHER S.
..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 35259539 35969588 36169624 36759589 37919410 38759222
38149141 37559180 36949296 36079403 35259539SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 6:46 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark, Cleveland and 13 more | 119 min |
| Feb 1, 6:54 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Carroll, Madison, Marion, Washington | 5 hr |
| Feb 1, 1:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton | 4 hr |
| Jan 31, 7:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Morton, Stevens | 5 hr |
| Feb 1, 3:11 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 1, 10:36 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Bates, Benton, Boone, Caldwell and 56 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 1, 11:42 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Dent, Franklin, Gasconade, Howell, Iron and 14 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 1, 3:36 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Carroll, Chariton and 25 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 31, 9:04 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Creek, Garvin and 14 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 31, 11:29 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Marshall | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.