Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 64

February 1, 201115 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Missouri; 28 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2011, 3:11 AM CST for 15 counties in Kansas; 28 counties in Missouri; 28 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 1, 2011, 3:11 AM CST (09:11 UTC)
Expired
Feb 1, 2011, 9:15 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 71 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Cherokee County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Kay County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2011-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2011-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -24 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
611 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

432 
ACUS11 KWNS 010911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010911 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...SERN KS...SW/WCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 010911Z - 011515Z

DYNAMIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS NCNTRL
TX AT 09Z WITH INTENSE H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED FROM CNTRL OK INTO WRN MO.  MESOSCALE BANDING WAS
INCREASING/NARROWING AS UPRIGHT/SLANTWISE INSTABILITY IS
RELEASING...AND EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO CONTINUE INCREASING INTO
THE 2-3" PER HOUR RANGE IN MOST INTENSE BANDS.

LATEST RUC AND 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM APPEAR TO HAVE EXCELLENT HANDLE ON
THE SCENARIO EVOLVING.  4KM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT MESOSCALE
BAND FROM CADDO COUNTY NWD INTO NCNTRL OK WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH 12-13Z WITH MORE DOMINANT BANDS EVOLVING
WITH TIME FROM EAST OF KOKC-KTUL-MIDWAY BETWEEN KSZL/KAIZ IN WCNTRL
MO BY 15Z.  PIVOT POINT WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
KOKC-KTUL WITH COLD CONVEYOR MAINTENANCE OF MDT-HVY SNOWFALL RATES
IN CNTRL OK AND POINTS ENE THROUGH NOON.  SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
MODERATE...AVERAGING 12:1...AND LATEST REPORT FROM PINK OK OF 2-3"
PER HOUR RATES AGREES WITH THE 21Z SREF HIGH PROBABILITY OF THOSE
RATES.  THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL PEAK 12-15Z IN CNTRL
OK...AND AFTER 15Z FROM NERN OK INTO WRN MO.

THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS AND LOW VISIBILITIES
BENEATH THE STRONGEST SNOWBANDS.  WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AOA THAT RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED.

..RACY.. 02/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36079476 35609513 35199561 34859595 34739627 34789686
            34839734 34989761 35239781 35669780 36129766 36679746
            37119719 37479679 39119423 39119221 38089220 36079476

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 31, 7:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMorton, Stevens5 hr
Jan 31, 10:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee5 hr
Feb 1, 1:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chase, Chautauqua, Cherokee and 18 more4 hr
Feb 1, 6:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Crawford, Dent, Douglas, Franklin, Gasconade and 22 more5 hr
Feb 1, 10:36 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Bates, Benton, Boone, Caldwell and 56 more6 hr
Feb 1, 11:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Dent, Franklin, Gasconade, Howell, Iron and 14 more5 hr
Feb 1, 3:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Carroll, Chariton and 25 more6 hr
Jan 31, 9:04 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Creek, Garvin and 14 more6 hr
Jan 31, 11:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Marshall5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.