Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 67

February 1, 201130 counties in Illinois; 25 counties in Iowa; 62 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2011, 10:36 AM CST for 30 counties in Illinois; 25 counties in Iowa; 62 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 1, 2011, 10:36 AM CST (16:36 UTC)
Expired
Feb 1, 2011, 4:30 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 117 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Maries County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2011-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2011-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
667 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
293 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

896 
ACUS11 KWNS 011636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011636 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA...WRN IL

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 011636Z - 012230Z

SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND N/EWD AHEAD OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
PIVOTING TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE TO 2-3 IN/HR ACROSS NRN MO...AND INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z.
STRENGTHENING N-NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE A
NEWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BANDS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IL. THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DCVA AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL OK. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND APPROACHING CYCLONE /WITH
40-50 KTS OF FLOW IN 285-295 K LAYER/ WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT. FOCUSED MESOSCALE BANDING /WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
FROM SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY/ WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO NRN MO.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 IN/HR
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MO...SPREADING INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z. LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE
MESOSCALE BANDS. ACROSS SRN IA...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 IN/HR.

..ROGERS.. 02/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39248998 38399113 37259317 38109478 40459441 41679315
            42049073 41468958 40718875 39748922 39248998

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 1, 6:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Clinton, Fayette, Jersey, Madison, Marion and 5 more5 hr
Feb 1, 11:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 27 more5 hr
Feb 1, 3:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Boone, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll and 49 more6 hr
Jan 31, 10:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Cole and 20 more5 hr
Feb 1, 3:11 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Camden, Cass and 22 more6 hr
Feb 1, 1:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Dade, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald and 1 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.