Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2010

August 18, 201111 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 18, 2011, 6:00 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2011, 6:00 PM CDT (23:00 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2011, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 42 counties

Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Miami County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Worth County, MO, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 717 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 85 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
717 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-277 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1077 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

641 
ACUS11 KWNS 182300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182300 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-WRN MO / FAR NERN KS / EXTREME SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 182300Z - 190000Z

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO DOWNSTREAM OF WW 785 ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF MO
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KS AND NEB.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY INITIALLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STORM MERGERS LEAD TO SOME
CONSOLIDATION AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY BECOMING A LARGER
THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL /AOA 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/ BEING REPORTED.  A RADAR FINE LINE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS NEAR OMA AND WRN IA IS SLOWLY PUSHING WWD
INTO ERN NEB.  SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ANALYZED BY THE RUC ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE SD/NEB/WRN IA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKGROUND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THESE FEATURES/STORM MOTIONS PROGRESS TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND AS A 30+ KT LLJ TERMINUS OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

STRONG VENTING HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40-60 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS
GRADUALLY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE LATER THIS EVENING.  STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM/ PER THE 18Z OAX RAOB ATOP A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER ARE RESULTING IN STRONG POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG---WITH A LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LASTING WELL
INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..SMITH.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39059556 40389649 40479552 40549398 39909345 38999292
            38099308 37839387 38319485 39059556

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMorton, Stanton56 min
Aug 17, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne57 min
Aug 18, 5:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Lincoln, Ness and 6 more64 min
Aug 18, 7:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDouglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Ripley3 hr
Aug 18, 2:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Mississippi, Perry, Scott and 2 more2 hr
Aug 18, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth84 min
Aug 18, 6:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt27 min
Aug 18, 6:38 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more5 hr
Aug 18, 12:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 21 more89 min
Aug 18, 1:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boone, Burt, Cass, Cedar, Colfax and 17 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.