Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2008

August 18, 201112 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 18, 2011, 5:26 PM CDT for 12 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2011, 5:26 PM CDT (22:26 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2011, 6:30 PM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1581 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 96 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1581 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-224 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1671 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

152 
ACUS11 KWNS 182226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182226 
KSZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 182226Z - 182330Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSTMS IS INCREASING ACROSS W-CNTRL KS.  AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO/LARGE HAIL
WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.  PROBABILITY OF A WW
ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED FROM SERN KS NNWWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB.  A RICH MOISTURE
RESERVOIR IS LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE LOW PLAINS.  FARTHER W...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS SURFACE LOW INTO WRN KS AND INTO SERN CO.  THE AREA IN
BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITHIN A
THERMAL RIDGE WITH TEMPS RISING AOA 100 DEG F AND DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE/ABSENT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA
LOCATED TO THE N HAS INCREASED SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION.  AS
SUCH...SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLD MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTER/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE MAY DEVELOP--WITH STRONG-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. 
HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLD...LIKELY
PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

..SMITH.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37929972 38540025 39369935 39329808 38129766 37799851
            37929972

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMorton, Stanton56 min
Aug 17, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne57 min
Aug 18, 6:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 5 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.