Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2005

August 18, 201115 counties in Iowa; 4 counties in Missouri; 30 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 18, 2011, 2:51 PM CDT for 15 counties in Iowa; 4 counties in Missouri; 30 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2011, 2:51 PM CDT (19:51 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2011, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Cass County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Worth County, MO, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 30 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1181 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 234 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
385 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
11.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

999 
ACUS11 KWNS 181952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181951
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS  ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 785...

VALID 181951Z - 182115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 785
CONTINUES.

AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF WW 785 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WW OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  NEW STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THIS
ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AIDED BY MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /AROUND 20 KT AT 850 MB/.  INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
COULD IMPACT THE OMAHA/LINCOLN AREA BY 22/23Z.  THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41909464 41299423 40729413 40319439 40079482 40019568
            40109691 40779765 41529813 42649855 42809785 42129670
            41909464

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 12:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Harrison, Ida, Mills, Monona, Plymouth and 3 more89 min
Aug 18, 1:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee and 17 more8 hr
Aug 18, 6:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Montgomery, Page and 2 more27 min
Aug 18, 6:38 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFremont, Mills, Page5 hr
Aug 18, 7:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDouglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Ripley3 hr
Aug 18, 2:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Mississippi, Perry, Scott and 2 more2 hr
Aug 18, 6:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Bates, Benton, Buchanan, Caldwell and 21 more60 min
Aug 17, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Dundy, Frontier and 10 more57 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.