Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2001

August 18, 20119 counties in Iowa; 27 counties in Nebraska; 5 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 18, 2011, 12:31 PM CDT for 9 counties in Iowa; 27 counties in Nebraska; 5 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2011, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2011, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Crawford County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Ida County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Holt County, NE, Knox County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nance County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1181 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2011-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 234 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
385 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
11.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

255 
ACUS11 KWNS 181731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181731 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-181900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN SD...NERN NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 181731Z - 181900Z

WHILE A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

AT LEAST A SHORT TERM RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED NEAR YANKTON SD...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SIZABLE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION...BENEATH 30-35 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. 
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH 20-21Z...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY ROOTED IN A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION.

..KERR.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   43389806 43259695 42679576 42039509 41309501 40879549
            40939693 41389843 42189894 42889873 43389806

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 1:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee and 17 more8 hr
Aug 18, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Cass, Fremont, Guthrie and 9 more84 min
Aug 18, 6:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Montgomery, Page and 2 more27 min
Aug 18, 6:38 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFremont, Mills, Page5 hr
Aug 17, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Dundy, Frontier and 10 more57 min
Aug 18, 6:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJohnson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson60 min
Aug 18, 3:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeadle, Brookings, Brown, Campbell, Clark, Codington and 20 more92 min
Aug 18, 4:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBennett, Brown, Buffalo, Campbell, Corson, Dewey and 22 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.