Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 159

February 27, 201116 counties in Illinois; 4 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 27, 2011, 8:49 PM CST for 16 counties in Illinois; 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 27, 2011, 8:49 PM CST (02:49 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2011, 2:45 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Kenosha County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Walworth County, WI

The radar

The Chicago radar (KLOT), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
86 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

111 
ACUS11 KWNS 280249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280249 
ILZ000-WIZ000-280845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SERN WI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 280249Z - 280845Z

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN IL AND FAR SERN
WI /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA/ THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH RATES AOA 0.05 INCH PER HOUR
POSSIBLE.

INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN IL AND SRN WI TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED NEWD MOTION OF A SHIELD OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AROUND 02Z DEPICTS THE SFC
FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ORD TO NEAR MLI...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE NUDGED SWD THIS EVENING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION.
FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH
FREEZING RAIN REACHING THE CHICAGO AREA AFTER 04Z. ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SERN WI...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WHICH MAY ALLOW SNOW OR
SLEET TO OCCUR. FREEZING RAIN RATES AOA 0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
NEAR SQI TO ORD...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY / 886 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER
00Z ILX SOUNDING / SPREADS NWD AND SUPPORTS UPRIGHT CONVECTION ALONG
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS HAS BEEN AFFIRMED BY THE 0153Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION AT BRL INDICATING A THUNDERSTORM HAVING OCCURRED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FREEZING RAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY 10Z.

..COHEN.. 02/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41679016 42378995 42768912 42968794 42508734 41908734
            41468797 41238907 41278978 41679016

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 27, 8:25 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 39 more65 min
Feb 27, 9:40 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Calhoun, Clinton, Edwards, Fayette and 27 more6 hr
Feb 27, 10:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Clinton, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Jersey and 9 more94 min
Feb 27, 11:46 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClark, Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Effingham, Jasper and 2 more5 hr
Feb 28, 1:05 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Massac, Pope, Pulaski25 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.