Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 148

February 27, 201126 counties in Kansas; 13 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 27, 2011, 12:46 PM CST for 26 counties in Kansas; 13 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 27, 2011, 12:46 PM CST (18:46 UTC)
Expired
Feb 27, 2011, 1:45 PM CST
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 39 counties

Anderson County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Miami County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Reno County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2011-02-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2011-02-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 505 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
382 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
505 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
498 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

131 
ACUS11 KWNS 271847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271846
MOZ000-KSZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KS...WCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271846Z - 271945Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS SCNTRL KS JUST
NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SFC FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ROOTED NEAR 850MB WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH...OR EVEN EXCEED 1500
J/KG.  LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL
TRANSLATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO SWRN MO LATE THIS EVENING.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSURE UPWARD
EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  CURRENT THINKING IS ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF WIND
SHIFT AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH A TORNADO WATCH AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW.. 02/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38229855 39809396 39509251 38729310 37929554 37029840
            38229855

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 27, 1:12 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Douglas and 22 more9 hr
Feb 27, 2:12 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford, Labette and 3 more93 min
Feb 27, 2:46 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho and 2 more8 hr
Feb 27, 3:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin and 20 more66 min
Feb 27, 5:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Montgomery, Wilson56 min
Feb 27, 12:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPemiscot91 min
Feb 27, 4:57 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Christian and 29 more2 hr
Feb 27, 5:10 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Macon, Marion, Monroe, Pike and 3 more35 min
Feb 27, 5:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Boone, Knox, Lewis, Marion, Monroe and 3 more4 hr
Feb 27, 5:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison, Mercer, Putnam6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.