Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1014

May 29, 20114 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2011, 11:59 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2011, 11:59 AM CDT (16:59 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2011, 1:00 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 69 counties

Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Ford County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Livingston County, IL, McLean County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Will County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 257 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2176 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2011-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2176 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
11.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

457 
ACUS11 KWNS 291700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291659
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...

VALID 291659Z - 291800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.

BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394
AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE
WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE
OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL.

..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312
            41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 8:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 26 more66 min
May 29, 8:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 33 more6 hr
May 29, 12:29 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 18 more7 hr
May 29, 3:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, DeKalb, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben88 min
May 29, 5:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGenesee, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe and 8 more54 min
May 29, 5:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain and 5 more25 min
May 29, 5:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshtabula, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Huron, Lake and 5 more5 hr
May 29, 6:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshtabula, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Huron, Lake and 5 more62 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.