Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1012

May 29, 20114 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2011, 1:41 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2011, 1:41 AM CDT (06:41 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2011, 3:45 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 73 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO, Nemaha County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 624 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

867 
ACUS11 KWNS 290641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290641 
MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/SERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 290641Z - 290845Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORMS EXPAND ACROSS THIS AREA.

LATEST VAD/PROFILER DATA CONFIRM MODEL FORECASTS OF 50-PLUS KT SSWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO ERN KS.  AS THE JET CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ELEVATED CONVECTION -- WHICH HAS BEEN BUBBLING ACROSS
NERN KS/ AND ADJACENT NWRN MO HAS BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE --
AIDED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION. 
GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...EXPECT INCREASING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY TO
CONTINUE -- WITH MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORM CORES. 
WW IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME BASED ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38419681 38829737 40099672 40799527 41199165 39219139
            38999411 38419681

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 8:39 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Appanoose, Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clarke, Clinton and 28 more	66 min
May 29, 8:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa, Jackson and 10 more	6 hr
May 29, 4:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fremont, Mills, Page	24 min
May 28, 9:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Greeley	2 hr
May 29, 3:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth and 6 more	95 min
May 29, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 23 more	6 hr
May 29, 6:35 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 29 more	115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.