Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 1011

May 28, 20116 counties in Colorado; Greeley County, Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2011, 8:27 PM MDT for 6 counties in Colorado; Greeley County, Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2011, 8:27 PM MDT (02:27 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2011, 10:30 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Washington County, CO, Greeley County, KS

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1444 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 429 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

711 
ACUS11 KWNS 290228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290227
KSZ000-COZ000-290430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...EXTREME WRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290227Z - 290430Z

RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NOTED PAST HALF HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF PALMER
RIDGE NW-SW OF LIC.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SWWD TOWARD
STG SFC LOW BETWEEN TAD-PUB...AND NNEWD TOWARD AKO.  OCNL LARGE HAIL
AND STG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR.

INCREASINGLY MOIST 850-MB STREAMLINES POINT DIRECTLY INTO THIS AREA
FROM KS...WITH ACTUAL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES LIKELY RISING ABOVE 850-MB
LEVEL AND REMAINING ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE SFC LAYER AS THEY
PROCEED WWD OVER ERN CO.  PROJECTED STORM MOTIONS YIELD
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW 35-45 KT...WHICH FOR A FEW HOURS MAY
COUNTERBALANCE EFFECTS OF INCREASING CINH WITH EWD EXTENT EVIDENT IN
DDC RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INFLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 600-700 MB...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT
SUPPORTING STORM-SCALE ROTATION AND ACCORDINGLY AUGMENTED HAIL
POTENTIAL.  RELATIVELY DRY LAYER BENEATH ELEVATED INFLOW REGION ALSO
MAY SUPPORT STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW LAYER
OF DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE GROWTH OF
CLUSTER CAN YIELD AGGREGATE COLD POOL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38350421 39280413 40100336 39750184 38140176 38080370
            38350421

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 12:41 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Dickinson, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary and 13 more	2 hr
May 29, 2:10 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth and 6 more	95 min
May 29, 3:36 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Brown, Clark, Clay, Cloud and 34 more	24 min
May 29, 3:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 23 more	6 hr
May 29, 5:35 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 29 more	115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.