Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY GENERALLY AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD ICT. INSTABILITY AS
SAMPLED BY 00Z SGF RAOB AND CONFIRMED BY RUC/SPC MESO ANALYSIS
PAGE REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH MU CAPES PUSHING THE 4000-4500
J/K RANGE. COMBINED WITH 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THIS HAS
YIELDED NUMEROUS SLITTING SUPERCELLS THUS FAR. HIGH LOW LEVEL
THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS FAVOR COLD POOL GENERATION...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS INCREASED LIFT
ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ KICKS IN. THIS LOOKS TO BE PLAYING OUT
LARGELY TO PLAN JUST EAST OF ICT...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
FIRED IN RESPONSE TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND
VWP DATA.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST IN MCS FORM...FAVORABLE COLD POOL/SHEAR
BALANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

BOXELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE
OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. A SUFFICIENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLACE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT LATE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY MAKE INTO THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COMING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SETTING UP AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING.

A SECOND CONCERN IS OUT IN CO/NW KS. IF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AND TAP INTO THIS AIR MASS...COULD HAVE CONVECTION WELL
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
COULD ALSO POSE SOME LLWS PROBLEMS TOWARD SUNRISE.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
ELEVATED LARGE HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY INTO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO FALL. THIS WILL CREATE
A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING RISK AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     HAIL             6 NE MCCUNE             37.42N 94.94W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW REPUBLIC           37.16N 93.53W
06/18/2011  E50 MPH          GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     ASH GROVE               37.32N 93.58W
06/19/2011  E60 MPH          GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT GROVE            37.41N 93.55W
06/19/2011  E60 MPH          GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BOLIVAR            37.59N 93.44W
06/19/2011  E70.00 MPH       POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     MORRISVILLE             37.48N 93.43W
06/19/2011  E70.00 MPH       POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOZ058-070-071-083-190600-
DENT MO-MARIES MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...
NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS AND SOUTHEASTERN MARIES COUNTIES UNTIL 100
AM CDT...

AT 1212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEVIL'S ELBOW...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIXON...DOOLITTLE...NEWBURG...NORTHEASTERN
FORT LEONARD WOOD...ROLLA AND ST. JAMES.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 199 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN DENT...PHELPS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARIES COUNTIES...INCLUDING NEWBURG...DOOLITTLE...ROLLA
AND ST. JAMES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3771 9151 3772 9210 3797 9216 3816 9159
      3816 9153 3793 9152 3780 9152 3779 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 252DEG 26KT 3786 9197

KARDELL