Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Springfield, MO

212 
WWUS53 KSGF 190331
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1031 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOC131-190415-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110619T0415Z/
MILLER MO-
1031 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY...

AT 1030 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ETTERVILLE...OR 9
MILES EAST OF ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA SPRINGS...ELDON...ETTERVILLE...
MARYS HOME...OLEAN...SAINT ELIZABETH AND TUSCUMBIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9239 3833 9219 3816 9220
      3816 9228 3819 9245 3824 9258 3835 9264
      3837 9263 3843 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 247DEG 45KT 3834 9240
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

KARDELL

107 
WWUS53 KSGF 190340
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOC131-190350-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110619T0415Z/
MILLER MO-
1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9239 3833 9219 3816 9220
      3816 9228 3819 9245 3824 9258 3835 9264
      3837 9263 3843 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 247DEG 45KT 3838 9226

$$

KARDELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY GENERALLY AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD ICT. INSTABILITY AS
SAMPLED BY 00Z SGF RAOB AND CONFIRMED BY RUC/SPC MESO ANALYSIS
PAGE REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH MU CAPES PUSHING THE 4000-4500
J/K RANGE. COMBINED WITH 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THIS HAS
YIELDED NUMEROUS SLITTING SUPERCELLS THUS FAR. HIGH LOW LEVEL
THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS FAVOR COLD POOL GENERATION...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS INCREASED LIFT
ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ KICKS IN. THIS LOOKS TO BE PLAYING OUT
LARGELY TO PLAN JUST EAST OF ICT...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
FIRED IN RESPONSE TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND
VWP DATA.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST IN MCS FORM...FAVORABLE COLD POOL/SHEAR
BALANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

BOXELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE
OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. A SUFFICIENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLACE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT LATE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY MAKE INTO THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COMING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SETTING UP AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING.

A SECOND CONCERN IS OUT IN CO/NW KS. IF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AND TAP INTO THIS AIR MASS...COULD HAVE CONVECTION WELL
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
COULD ALSO POSE SOME LLWS PROBLEMS TOWARD SUNRISE.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
ELEVATED LARGE HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF SUPERCELLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...BEFORE FORMING
INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS...AS WELL AS WELL AS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ONCE IT ORGANIZES
AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
842 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             LAKELAND                38.22N 92.63W
06/18/2011  E1.75 INCH       MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             ELDON                   38.35N 92.58W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY KRCG TV

&&

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
857 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ073-097-190230-
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
857 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 853 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALNUT...OR NEAR ST. PAUL...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BEULAH...BRAZILTON...FARLINGTON...
FRANKLIN...FRONTENAC...GIRARD...GREENBUSH...HEPLER...HIATTVILLE...
LONE OAK...PITTSBURG...POLK...PORTERVILLE...RINGO AND WALNUT.

PEOPLE IN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
GIRARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3770 9509 3781 9491 3742 9462 3740 9462
      3740 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 255DEG 28KT 3752 9511

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOZ056-057-190300-
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
934 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF AURORA SPRINGS...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ELDON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA SPRINGS...BARNETT...ELDON...
ETTERVILLE AND OLEAN.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
ELDON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3849 9269 3844 9262 3844 9252 3843 9241
      3842 9241 3825 9255 3830 9277 3850 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 197DEG 37KT 3837 9263

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             ELDON                   38.35N 92.58W
06/18/2011  E0.50 INCH       MILLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME HAIL IN ELDON

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HAIL             4 SW GREENBUSH          37.47N 95.03W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN