Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Springfield, MO

439 
WWUS53 KSGF 190504
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MOC029-190514-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0328.000000T0000Z-110619T0515Z/
CAMDEN MO-
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 9220 3810 9218 3802 9218 3801 9214
      3792 9241 3802 9241 3802 9251 3807 9257
      3809 9257 3810 9259 3817 9260 3817 9264
      3819 9264 3836 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 227DEG 31KT 3811 9236

$$

MOC131-169-190515-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0328.000000T0000Z-110619T0515Z/
MILLER MO-PULASKI MO-
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND MILLER COUNTIES...

AT 1157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF BRUMLEY...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OSAGE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAGNELL...BRUMLEY...IBERIA...KAISER...
TUSCUMBIA AND ULMAN.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK
AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 9220 3810 9218 3802 9218 3801 9214
      3792 9241 3802 9241 3802 9251 3807 9257
      3809 9257 3810 9259 3817 9260 3817 9264
      3819 9264 3836 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 227DEG 31KT 3811 9236
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

KARDELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY GENERALLY AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD ICT. INSTABILITY AS
SAMPLED BY 00Z SGF RAOB AND CONFIRMED BY RUC/SPC MESO ANALYSIS
PAGE REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH MU CAPES PUSHING THE 4000-4500
J/K RANGE. COMBINED WITH 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THIS HAS
YIELDED NUMEROUS SLITTING SUPERCELLS THUS FAR. HIGH LOW LEVEL
THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS FAVOR COLD POOL GENERATION...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS INCREASED LIFT
ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ KICKS IN. THIS LOOKS TO BE PLAYING OUT
LARGELY TO PLAN JUST EAST OF ICT...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
FIRED IN RESPONSE TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND
VWP DATA.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST IN MCS FORM...FAVORABLE COLD POOL/SHEAR
BALANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

BOXELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE
OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. A SUFFICIENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLACE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT LATE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY MAKE INTO THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COMING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SETTING UP AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING.

A SECOND CONCERN IS OUT IN CO/NW KS. IF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AND TAP INTO THIS AIR MASS...COULD HAVE CONVECTION WELL
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
COULD ALSO POSE SOME LLWS PROBLEMS TOWARD SUNRISE.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
ELEVATED LARGE HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY INTO AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO FALL. THIS WILL CREATE
A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING RISK AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E CHEROKEE            37.35N 94.74W
06/18/2011  E60 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W PITTSBURG           37.41N 94.76W
06/18/2011                   CRAWFORD           KS   STORM CHASER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ONE LANE OF HIGHWAY 126. WIND
            ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             5 E PITTSBURG           37.41N 94.62W
06/18/2011  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40
            MPH.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ASBURY              37.29N 94.61W
06/18/2011                   JASPER             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GRAIN BIN DESTROYED...WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 80 MPH.

&&

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOZ079-090-095-190445-
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-POLK MO-
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHRISTIAN...GREENE AND POLK
COUNTIES...

AT 1113 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES WEST OF
FAIR PLAY TO 23 MILES WEST OF ASH GROVE TO 35 MILES WEST OF ASH
GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASH GROVE...BATTLEFIELD...BILLINGS...
BOLIVAR...CLEVER...FAIR GROVE...FAIR PLAY...HIGHLANDVILLE...
HUMANSVILLE...MORRISVILLE...NIXA...OZARK...PLEASANT HOPE...
REPUBLIC...SPARTA...SPRINGFIELD...STRAFFORD...WALNUT GROVE AND
WILLARD.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE POMME DE
TERRE LAKE AND STOCKTON LAKE. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59
AND 90 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CHRISTIAN...GREENE AND POLK COUNTIES...INCLUDING STOCKTON
LAKE...ASH GROVE AND WALNUT GROVE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. THOSE
CONDUCTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD IMMEDIATELY
PREPARE FOR DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3682 9334 3699 9334 3700 9361 3774 9361
      3775 9363 3783 9363 3783 9358 3781 9357
      3780 9319 3742 9318 3741 9308 3709 9306
      3708 9290 3681 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 274DEG 40KT 3754 9392 3734 9394
          3721 9414

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOCKWOOD                37.39N 93.95W
06/18/2011  E60 MPH          DADE               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            ALONG WITH PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

GAGAN