Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESO/SHORT TERM...

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER AT LEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  QUESTION RIGHT NOW INCREASINGLY
BECOMING WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE.  COUPLE OF
FEATURES OF NOTE SHOWING UP IN SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA.  LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY
OUTFLOW OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY
COLUMBIA TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA.  WEAK VORT MAXES OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH EASTERN
KANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z.  OTHER BOUNDARY OF
INTEREST IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE U.S. 65 CORRIDOR.  BROAD
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND SHOULD THE CAP BE
OVERCOME IN THIS AREA...THEN CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE FOCUSED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY.  CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN INITIATION IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI...OWNING TO THE LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT THAT IS IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

SPEAKING OF THE CAP...SPECIAL 19Z SGF SOUNDING IS CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS...AND INITIAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INHIBITION DOES
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH H7 TEMPS IN THE 14-16 DEGREE
RANGE AND MLCINH ON THE ORDER OF -50 J/K. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. 65
CORRIDOR...THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS TO WHETHER CINH CAN BE
OVERCOME IN THIS AREA.

SO WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...THINK THAT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO RIGHT NOW
IS INITIATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PERHAPS OVER CENTRAL MO...WITH STORMS INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL YIELD A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...PERHAPS LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS...DURING THE EARLY LIFE
CYCLE OF CONVECTION. SFC TO 700 MB THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 K SUGGESTS A PROBABLE WIND THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF
REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES CAN BE TAPPED.

AS THE EVENING GOES ON AND LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDE
INCREASES...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION FORM INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS(S) AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA.  SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS/DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.  UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS
THAT 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE OF FAVORABLE MAGNITUDE AND
DIRECTION TO SUPPORT COLD POOL BALANCE...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED
WIND THREAT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION/COLD POOL. HAIL
WILL STILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION
...SPIN-UP TORNADO POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS
CAN INTERACT WITH ANY EAST TO WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

BOXELL

...DISCUSSION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE
OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. A SUFFICIENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLACE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT LATE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND WILL LIKELY MAKE INTO THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION COMING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
SETTING UP AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING.

A SECOND CONCERN IS OUT IN CO/NW KS. IF THESE STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AND TAP INTO THIS AIR MASS...COULD HAVE CONVECTION WELL
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET
COULD ALSO POSE SOME LLWS PROBLEMS TOWARD SUNRISE.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
ELEVATED LARGE HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF SUPERCELLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...BEFORE FORMING
INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS...AS WELL AS WELL AS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ONCE IT ORGANIZES
AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
750 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MOZ056-057-069-190130-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
750 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLER...NORTHERN CAMDEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HURRICANE DECK TO 3
MILES WEST OF FREEDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LAKE OZARK...LAKELAND...LAURIE...OSAGE
BEACH...VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS AND VILLAGE OF FOUR SE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

PEOPLE IN MILLER...NORTHERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAURIE...LAKE OF THE OZARKS...LAKE OF THE OZARKS
STATE PARK...OSAGE BEACH...VILLAGE OF FOUR SE...VILLAGE OF FOUR
SEASONS...LAKE OZARK AND LAKELAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3820 9219 3818 9220 3796 9264 3813 9302
      3836 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 238DEG 18KT 3814 9282 3806 9263

KARDELL