Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Springfield, MO

204 
WWUS53 KSGF 230039
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC091-149-215-230049-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-110423T0100Z/
HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-TEXAS MO-
739 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHEASTERN HOWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9103 3708 9121 3699 9122 3689 9139
      3689 9155 3701 9165 3732 9117 3731 9115
      3726 9115 3725 9111 3721 9112 3721 9109
      3718 9108 3717 9103 3714 9101 3710 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 236DEG 31KT 3712 9127

$$

MOC203-230100-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-110423T0100Z/
SHANNON MO-
739 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN SHANNON COUNTY...

AT 735 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMINENCE...OR 23
MILES EAST OF MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALLEY SPRING...BIRCH TREE...EMINENCE...
MONTIER...TERESITA...WEST EMINENCE AND WINONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9103 3708 9121 3699 9122 3689 9139
      3689 9155 3701 9165 3732 9117 3731 9115
      3726 9115 3725 9111 3721 9112 3721 9109
      3718 9108 3717 9103 3714 9101 3710 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 236DEG 31KT 3712 9127
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BOXELL

478 
WWUS53 KSGF 230051
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC203-230101-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-110423T0100Z/
SHANNON MO-
751 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SHANNON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3708 9103 3708 9121 3699 9122 3689 9139
      3689 9155 3701 9165 3732 9117 3731 9115
      3726 9115 3725 9111 3721 9112 3721 9109
      3718 9108 3717 9103 3714 9101 3710 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 236DEG 31KT 3718 9116

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL.

SEE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE UPDATE BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL. QUICK LOOK
AT THE 20Z KSGF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE AT 750MB...BUT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE OVER KS AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING. INITIATION IS STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 4KM WRF WOULD
INDICATE...AROUND 21Z-22Z. THE OVERALL SET UP HAS SOME SIMILARITIES
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER LAST TUE.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA WILL GRADUALLY SLOW AND
STALL FROM THE OH VLY...THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO NORTHEAST OK BY
SAT MORNING. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
NOCTURNAL OW LEVEL JET BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGGED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.50 INCHES AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEFTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY HAS NOT
CHANGED...BUT OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HEAVIEST.
IN THE GRIDS...STILL HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF SIX
INCHES.

THE NEWS DOES NOT GET ANY BETTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED. ANY HEAVY RAIN BY THIS TIME WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
AS RUNOFF. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT WILL BE A MORE OF
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERN.

FINALLY LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER LATE IN THE EXTENDED THU-FRI.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/133 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AS A RESULT INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1500 TO
3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT THE CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE AND THE CONTINUED HEATING
OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WHICH HAS CAUSED THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER
21Z (4 PM CDT) THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.

WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT...WITH DISCRETE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL IN SIZE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERED HOWEVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL SOME...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. HOWEVER...AGAIN
WITH THE SUPERCELLUAR STORM MODE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXPECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BY MID EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS MAY CONGEAL MORE
INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE TAF SITES WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-232245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
540 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE HAIL RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE FLOODING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THEY CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SENECA TO ELDON MISSOURI. THE STORMS
WILL THEN LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE BY MID EVENING AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI OZARKS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE STORM RISK.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT STALLS THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF
LINGERING HEAVY RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN COUNTIES CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY0 ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME
SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RISK OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SENECA TO ELDON MISSOURI LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             MARSHFIELD              37.34N 92.91W
04/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MARSHFIELD              37.34N 92.91W
04/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
04/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             2 SE GREENFIELD         37.39N 93.82W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       DADE               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             NIANGUA                 37.39N 92.83W
04/22/2011  M1.25 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             WALNUT GROVE            37.41N 93.55W
04/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCOLUCCI