Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY THE MO/AR BORDER IS IN
PLACE. HAVE HAS WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER UPDRAFTS THIS
MORNING. A SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT.
MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG BASED AT 800MB (21Z GFS KSGF SOUNDING) WILL
SUPPORT THE SHORT TERM STORM THREAT WITH THE MAIN OVERALL STORM
THREAT BEING HAIL...BUT A LOW END RISK FOR NEAR SFC BASED STORMS IS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.

FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION TO START THE DAY MAY GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A MORE SFC BASED STORM THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MO. ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP...WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN MO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MON MORNING WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A STRONGER 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FLOODING.
WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
STRAIGHT GFS OUTPUT HAS ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 INCHES OF QPF FROM
25/00Z-25/12Z. ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
THE ECMWF AND HPC MAY BE A MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF...WITH
LESSER 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE SOIL CONDITIONS...THIS WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING...AND IN AREAS ALREADY FLOODED...WORSENING
FLOODING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LONGER STEM RIVER FLOODING INTO MON-TUE.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
POSE A MORE GENERAL SEVERE STORM RISK MON-MON EVENING. AGAIN...THIS WILL
BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN REALIZED WHICH IS
NOT CUT AND DRIED GIVEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THAT MAY BE
IN PLACE. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DIGGING SHORTWAVE WED. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FINALLY EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 136 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

FOR THE 23/1800Z KSGF/KSGF/KJLN TAFS...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE MO/AR BORDER. KBBG WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THAT
ACTIVITY WITH LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAFS IN THE SHORT TERM. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AS LIFT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL
LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CAT...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF
IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AREAS.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE HAIL RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED.
THE FLOODING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS STATIONARY ALONG THE
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMAR TO ELDON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH. A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND AND
TORNADO RISK IS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO
THE FRONT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND DANGEROUS FLOODING RISK MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RISK OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

MOZ101-232030-
MCDONALD MO-
302 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH WEST CITY...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF JAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ANDERSON...GOODMAN...LANAGAN...NOEL...
PINEVILLE AND SOUTH WEST CITY.

PEOPLE IN MCDONALD COUNTY...INCLUDING SOUTH WEST CITY...NOEL AND
PINEVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3650 9427 3649 9462 3650 9463 3659 9462
      3676 9439 3676 9437 3655 9407 3654 9407
      3649 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 243DEG 38KT 3646 9460

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             5 NNE MANSFIELD         37.17N 92.55W
04/23/2011  E1.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NORTH OF MANSFIELD.
            REPORTS OF CARS DENTED BY HAIL.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             7 N MOUNTAIN GROVE      37.23N 92.26W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   PUBLIC

            VOLUNTEER OBSERVER.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             2 N MANSFIELD           37.14N 92.58W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GOUND.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             1 S REPUBLIC            37.11N 93.48W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             THEODOSIA               36.58N 92.68W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BOXELL