Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Springfield, MO

176 
WWUS53 KSGF 232241
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

MOC065-203-215-232251-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-110423T2300Z/
DENT MO-SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-
541 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN SHANNON AND DENT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3758 9117 3759 9130 3751 9131 3750 9120
      3742 9120 3738 9174 3755 9182 3780 9142
      3779 9131 3771 9130 3771 9120 3762 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 237DEG 52KT 3777 9117

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 434 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN OK COOLED MID LEVELS ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS
TO BLOSSOM IN AN AREA OF MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG BASED AT NEAR 800MB.
SOME MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION IN SOME STORMS HAD AIDED IN HAIL
GROWTH. COVERAGE HAS BEEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED SEVERE
STORM WORDING TO THE ZFP AND BEEFED UP HWO INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY...EVEN NEAR THE FRONT ALONG
THE MO/AR BORDER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC BASED CONVECTION...SO HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

DSA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY THE MO/AR BORDER IS IN
PLACE. HAVE HAS WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SMALL HAIL FROM STRONGER UPDRAFTS THIS
MORNING. A SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT.
MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG BASED AT 800MB (21Z GFS KSGF SOUNDING) WILL
SUPPORT THE SHORT TERM STORM THREAT WITH THE MAIN OVERALL STORM
THREAT BEING HAIL...BUT A LOW END RISK FOR NEAR SFC BASED STORMS IS
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.

FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION TO START THE DAY MAY GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A MORE SFC BASED STORM THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MO. ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP...WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN MO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MON MORNING WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A STRONGER 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FLOODING.
WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
STRAIGHT GFS OUTPUT HAS ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 INCHES OF QPF FROM
25/00Z-25/12Z. ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
THE ECMWF AND HPC MAY BE A MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF...WITH
LESSER 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE SOIL CONDITIONS...THIS WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING...AND IN AREAS ALREADY FLOODED...WORSENING
FLOODING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LONGER STEM RIVER FLOODING INTO MON-TUE.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
POSE A MORE GENERAL SEVERE STORM RISK MON-MON EVENING. AGAIN...THIS WILL
BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN REALIZED WHICH IS
NOT CUT AND DRIED GIVEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THAT MAY BE
IN PLACE. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DIGGING SHORTWAVE WED. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FINALLY EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 136 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

FOR THE 23/1800Z KSGF/KSGF/KJLN TAFS...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE MO/AR BORDER. KBBG WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THAT
ACTIVITY WITH LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAFS IN THE SHORT TERM. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z AS LIFT
DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL
LOWERED CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CAT...BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF
IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN AREAS.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
345 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE HAIL RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED.
THE FLOODING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS STATIONARY ALONG THE
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMAR TO ELDON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH. A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND AND
TORNADO RISK IS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO
THE FRONT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND DANGEROUS FLOODING RISK MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RISK OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
435 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN GROVE          37.13N 92.26W
04/23/2011  E0.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             2 N CRANE               36.93N 93.57W
04/23/2011  E0.88 INCH       STONE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
443 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             DORA                    36.78N 92.22W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             FORDLAND                37.16N 92.94W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0440 PM     HAIL             SEYMOUR                 37.15N 92.77W
04/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             MOUNTAIN GROVE          37.13N 92.26W
04/23/2011  M2.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

MOZ082-092-232245-
TEXAS MO-WRIGHT MO-
508 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN WRIGHT AND WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARTVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3737 9258 3748 9227 3748 9225 3749 9225
      3748 9224 3716 9214 3714 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 244DEG 26KT 3729 9247

HATCH