Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

184 
WWUS53 KSGF 230356
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC225-230406-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110423T0430Z/
WEBSTER MO-
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9268 3725 9267 3741 9239 3717 9225
      3711 9225 3706 9266 3707 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 252DEG 33KT 3714 9267

$$

MOC229-230430-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110423T0430Z/
WRIGHT MO-
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR WRIGHT COUNTY...

AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD...OR 13
MILES NORTH OF AVA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DAWSON...HARTVILLE...MANSFIELD...MOUNTAIN
GROVE...NORWOOD AND ODIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS THIS STORM APPROACHES. A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP WITH LITTLE ADVANCED WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9268 3725 9267 3741 9239 3717 9225
      3711 9225 3706 9266 3707 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 252DEG 33KT 3714 9267
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

BOXELL

012 
WWUS53 KSGF 230413
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC229-230430-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110423T0430Z/
WRIGHT MO-
1113 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY...

AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF HARTVILLE...OR 15 MILES
WEST OF MOUNTAIN GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DAWSON...HARTVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE AND
NORWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9250 3732 9255 3741 9239 3717 9225
      3711 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 252DEG 33KT 3718 9248
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$

BOXELL

031 
WWUS53 KSGF 230422
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC229-230432-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-110423T0430Z/
WRIGHT MO-
1122 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3708 9250 3732 9255 3741 9239 3717 9225
      3711 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 252DEG 33KT 3720 9238

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL.

SEE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE UPDATE BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL. QUICK LOOK
AT THE 20Z KSGF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE AT 750MB...BUT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE OVER KS AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING. INITIATION IS STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 4KM WRF WOULD
INDICATE...AROUND 21Z-22Z. THE OVERALL SET UP HAS SOME SIMILARITIES
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER LAST TUE.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA WILL GRADUALLY SLOW AND
STALL FROM THE OH VLY...THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO NORTHEAST OK BY
SAT MORNING. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
NOCTURNAL OW LEVEL JET BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGGED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.50 INCHES AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEFTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY HAS NOT
CHANGED...BUT OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HEAVIEST.
IN THE GRIDS...STILL HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF SIX
INCHES.

THE NEWS DOES NOT GET ANY BETTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED. ANY HEAVY RAIN BY THIS TIME WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
AS RUNOFF. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT WILL BE A MORE OF
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERN.

FINALLY LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER LATE IN THE EXTENDED THU-FRI.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/133 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AS A RESULT INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1500 TO
3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT THE CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE AND THE CONTINUED HEATING
OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WHICH HAS CAUSED THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER
21Z (4 PM CDT) THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.

WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT...WITH DISCRETE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL IN SIZE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERED HOWEVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL SOME...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. HOWEVER...AGAIN
WITH THE SUPERCELLUAR STORM MODE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXPECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BY MID EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS MAY CONGEAL MORE
INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE TAF SITES WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
916 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE HAIL RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE FLOODING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED.
THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
REMAINING RISKS WILL BE WITH LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE
STORM RISK. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT STALLS THERE WILL BE THE THREAT
OF LINGERING HEAVY RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN COUNTIES
CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY0 ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME
SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RISK OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO ROLLA LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
848 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PRESCOTT                37.44N 91.92W
04/22/2011                   TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DALBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
936 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE POMONA            36.92N 91.88W
04/22/2011                   HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAYS AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY U AND HIGHWAY UU.

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     HAIL             1 S NORWOOD             37.09N 92.41W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             2 WSW NORWOOD           37.10N 92.45W
04/22/2011  E2.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT REPORTS BASEBALL SIZED HAIL IN MACCOMB.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1033 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HAIL             ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.06W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOZ093-094-101-102-230400-
BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-NEWTON MO-LAWRENCE MO-
1037 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN MCDONALD...NORTHWESTERN
BARRY...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEWTON MCDONALD COUNTY BORDER TO THE
WEST OF STELLA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEOSHO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA...FAIRVIEW...FREISTATT...GOODMAN...
GRANBY...HOBERG...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEWTONIA...PIERCE CITY...
PIONEER...RITCHEY...STARK CITY...STELLA...STOTTS CITY...VERONA AND
WENTWORTH.

LAT...LON 3716 9386 3698 9370 3662 9431 3676 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 234DEG 42KT 3681 9424

RUNNELS