Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND (OR TWO) OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING A BRIEF PAUSE TODAY.
THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL RIP AND CURL NORTHWARD ACROSS MO TONIGHT...THEN
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW. THESE 100+KT
WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP FOCUS/ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SVR WX OUTBREAK IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO/DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR SPIN-OFF TORNADOES ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG MID LEVEL
ASCENT RATES MAY AID IN LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PW'S AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FUELING WILL
RESULT IN MAX PRECIP EFFICIENCY STORMS...PRODUCING ANOTHER 2-4"
SWATH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY UPWARDS TO 5-6" NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE ALREADY FALLEN RAIN ON
FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS...WITH STORM TOTAL PCPN ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 3-4" ON THE LOW END ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...TO
10-12" ON THE HIGH END ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE ONLY
ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE HIGH PRECIP ZONE TO COME IS IT MAY FALL
HEAVIEST OVER WESTERN KY/ESP THE PENNYRILE...WHERE TO DATE THE
RELATIVELY LOWER TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. STILL ALL GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DEFINITIVELY CONTINUES THRU 00Z
THURSDAY.

ONE OTHER COMPONENT OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM PARTICULARLY LATE
TONIGHT...THRU TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...IS THE LIFT OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ITS TRACK AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT. BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK ON HWO AND HEADLINE IF NECESSARY.

RELIEF OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE BROUGHT
SOUTH FROM THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FA...QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NEXT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL PAUSE UNTIL SAT PM/SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY SINKS IN AND STALLS BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MONDAY. WE'VE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS TIME
FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOISTEN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND INDUCE LOWER CIGS. HOWEVER...MOST OBSERVATIONS
WITHIN THE RAIN AREA ARE VFR OR MVFR...RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR
OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREA ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MAKE
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 12Z. HOWEVER...MORE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AS A STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
BALLARD-CALDWELL-
CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
BOLLINGER-BUTLER-     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
MADRID-PERRY MO-     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH
FLOOD PRODUCT AND ANY OF THE NUMEROUS ONGOING AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS VERY DANGEROUS
FLOODING SITUATION. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR BUTLER COUNTY MISSOURI REGARDING THE RISK OF THE
LEVEE NEAR POPLAR BLUFF.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THROUGH TONIGHT. A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...UNTIL 1000 PM. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY ROUNDS OF WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH OUT
OF ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT TIME PERIOD BEING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN LATER
TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL HIT...AS
THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A
BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH BOTH ROUNDS...ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH UPWARDS TO 5 OR 6 INCHES
LOCALLY A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SPECIFICALLY IN THE PENNYRILE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCT AND
ANY ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE TORNADO WATCH. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
938 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     HAIL             N SACRAMENTO            37.42N 87.27W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       MCLEAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     HAIL             UTICA                   37.61N 87.11W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       DAVIESS            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             LIVERMORE               37.49N 87.13W
04/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             SACRAMENTO              38.03N 88.34W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       WHITE              IL   PUBLIC

            STORM WINDOWS BUSTED WINDSHIELD CRACKED AND A LOT OF
            DENTS IN PERSONAL VEHICLE.

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1102 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

JAYSONW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
107 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

KYZ012-017-021-022-270645-
MUHLENBERG KY-CHRISTIAN KY-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-
107 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TODD...SOUTHERN
CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHWESTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

AT 104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE
HAIL...AND VERY STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF HOPKINSVILLE TO
LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE HERNDON...FORT CAMPBELL
NORTH...OAK GROVE AND PEMBROKE.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. WATER LEVELS IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS
AND IN DITCHES MAY RISE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SMITH