Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1252 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND (OR TWO) OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING A BRIEF PAUSE TODAY.
THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES WILL RIP AND CURL NORTHWARD ACROSS MO TONIGHT...THEN
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW. THESE 100+KT
WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP FOCUS/ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SVR WX OUTBREAK IN THE FORM OF A BOW ECHO/DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR SPIN-OFF TORNADOES ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG MID LEVEL
ASCENT RATES MAY AID IN LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PW'S AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FUELING WILL
RESULT IN MAX PRECIP EFFICIENCY STORMS...PRODUCING ANOTHER 2-4"
SWATH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY UPWARDS TO 5-6" NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE ALREADY FALLEN RAIN
ON FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS...WITH STORM TOTAL PCPN ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3-4" ON THE LOW END ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...TO 10-12" ON THE HIGH END ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE ONLY
ENCOURAGEMENT FROM THE HIGH PRECIP ZONE TO COME IS IT MAY FALL
HEAVIEST OVER WESTERN KY/ESP THE PENNYRILE...WHERE TO DATE THE
RELATIVELY LOWER TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. STILL ALL GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DEFINITIVELY CONTINUES THRU
00Z THURSDAY.

ONE OTHER COMPONENT OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM PARTICULARLY LATE
TONIGHT...THRU TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...IS THE LIFT OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ITS TRACK AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT. BELIEVE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK ON HWO AND HEADLINE IF NECESSARY.

RELIEF OCCURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE BROUGHT
SOUTH FROM THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FA...QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE NEXT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL PAUSE UNTIL SAT PM/SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY SINKS IN AND STALLS BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON MONDAY. WE'VE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS TIME
FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BREAK IN THE MVFR DECK MAY OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH
FLOOD PRODUCT AND ANY OF THE NUMEROUS ONGOING AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS VERY DANGEROUS
FLOODING SITUATION. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR BUTLER COUNTY MISSOURI REGARDING THE RISK OF THE
LEVEE NEAR POPLAR BLUFF.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...THROUGH TONIGHT. A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...UNTIL 1000 PM. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY ROUNDS OF WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH OUT
OF ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT TIME PERIOD BEING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN LATER
TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL HIT...AS
THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A
BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH BOTH ROUNDS...ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH UPWARDS TO 5 OR 6 INCHES
LOCALLY A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
SPECIFICALLY IN THE PENNYRILE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCT AND
ANY ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PAH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE TORNADO WATCH. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
739 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
04/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
740 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             SHARPE                  36.97N 88.46W
04/26/2011  E1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
746 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
747 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             BREWERS                 36.77N 88.44W
04/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
752 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             FAIRDEALING             36.84N 88.22W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
754 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             10 E PADUCAH            37.07N 88.45W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       LIVINGSTON         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DLL