Severe Thunderstorm Warning 629, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE UPDATING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE FARTHER SOUTH. NEW
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A SHORT TIME AGO...AND ARE NOW ALSO
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL AND POP FORECASTS. THE BASIC
IDEA IS THAT WE EXPECT TRAINING ECHOES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES FROM NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD SIMILARLY
SHIFT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KPNC TO KCSM WILL DRIFT NW TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...A DRY SLOT WILL
BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION...FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OK/N
TX. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZATION OF THESE FEATURES. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST CONVECTION...SOME TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY SEE TSRA OFF-AND-ON FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
NOW. OTHERWISE, POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN AREAS
EAST OF I-35 FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CLEAR
EARLY TUESDAY WITH CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA SUBJECT TO AN
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  64  37  57 /  90  40  10  10
HOBART OK         54  62  32  58 / 100  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  72  39  59 /  70  30  10  10
GAGE OK           44  49  29  55 /  60  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  63  35  54 / 100  60  10  10
DURANT OK         62  73  42  59 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ018>020-022>029-
     033>036.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
950 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS...TO WATONGA...TO
BLACKWELL...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA TO HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM NOW THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND BUILDINGS FROM HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 4
AM.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WILL PROVIDE INCREASED ENERGY TO ALLOW STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES WITH SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. BOW ECHOES WILL FORM OCCASIONALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...AND FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS UNTIL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIMITED FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ023-035-037-038-TXZ085-080400-
CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK-KIOWA OK-TILLMAN OK-WILBARGER TX-
931 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...COMANCHE...KIOWA...
TILLMAN AND WILBARGER COUNTIES.

AT 931 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 10
MILES NORTH OF WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE TO DAVIDSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3501 9851 3469 9859 3462 9863 3432 9873
      3412 9914 3448 9903 3452 9890 3493 9874

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ023-024-027-038-080445-
CADDO OK-CANADIAN OK-COMANCHE OK-GRADY OK-
1008 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...CANADIAN...COMANCHE
AND GRADY COUNTIES.

AT 1007 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5
MILES WEST OF MINCO TO SOUTHERN LAKE ELLSWORTH...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3539 9767 3483 9780 3473 9802 3474 9854
      3488 9832 3543 9809

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>