Severe Thunderstorm Warning 623, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH A SHORT TIME AGO...AND ARE NOW ALSO
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL AND POP FORECASTS. THE BASIC
IDEA IS THAT WE EXPECT TRAINING ECHOES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES FROM NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD SIMILARLY
SHIFT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KPNC TO KCSM WILL DRIFT NW TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE WAVE MOVES NE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...A DRY SLOT WILL
BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION...FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OK/N
TX. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZATION OF THESE FEATURES. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST CONVECTION...SOME TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY SEE TSRA OFF-AND-ON FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
NOW. OTHERWISE, POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN AREAS
EAST OF I-35 FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CLEAR
EARLY TUESDAY WITH CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA SUBJECT TO AN
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  64  37  57 /  90  40  10  10
HOBART OK         54  62  32  58 / 100  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  72  39  59 /  70  30  10  10
GAGE OK           44  49  29  55 /  60  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  63  35  54 / 100  60  10  10
DURANT OK         62  73  42  59 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011-012-
     014>018-021-022-033>035.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS WEST OF SEILING...WEATHERFORD...LAWTON AND
WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND ROOFTOPS FROM LARGE HAIL. THE LARGEST
HAIL MAY BE GREATER THAN TWO INCHES DIAMETER.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW WARMER SURFACE AIR TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
ENERGY TO ALLOW STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL MID-EVENING. THE WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE RISK OF TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
PERSONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS SHOULD
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION. IN
ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL THEN BECOME HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS UNTIL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIMITED FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             HYDRO                   35.55N 98.58W
11/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       CADDO              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             7 W ALTUS               34.64N 99.46W
11/07/2011  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             MARTHA                  34.73N 99.39W
11/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             MARTHA                  34.73N 99.39W
11/07/2011  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
708 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             2 N BLAIR               34.81N 99.33W
11/07/2011  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
720 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE    34.66N 99.29W
11/07/2011  M67 MPH          JACKSON            OK   ASOS

            KLTS REPORTED WIND GUST MEASURED AT 58 KNOTS.

&&

CMARTIN