Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
222 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF A ACTIVE PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTN AS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... AND THEN PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER A LOT OF WHAT
OCCURS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH FROM
ALOFT MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
MAIN SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY/TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONGER SFC FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  77  65  83 /  60  60  40   0
HOBART OK         65  85  61  92 /  40  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  84  67  96 /  50  50  30   0
GAGE OK           54  79  50  87 /  30  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  78  62  79 /  50  60  60  10
DURANT OK         70  78  67  83 /  60  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN... WESTERN...
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  EAST OF THE DRYLINE... THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS
THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...SUCH AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS AND STRONG WINDS TO NEAR 65 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM FRIDAY.

SIX/CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

TXZ084-087-192130-
FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
402 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND KNOX COUNTIES.

AT 402 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TRUSCOTT AND 5 MILES NORTH OF GILLILAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3399 9993 3384 9951 3359 9985 3364 10000
      3377 10001

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             2 E COLD SPRINGS        34.80N 98.96W
05/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       KIOWA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS BEGINNING TO COVER THE ROAD.

&&

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
437 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ036-037-TXZ085-192200-
JACKSON OK-TILLMAN OK-WILBARGER TX-
437 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JACKSON...TILLMAN AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

AT 438 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FARGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3455 9928 3442 9909 3425 9934 3431 9944

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

TXZ084-192200-
FOARD TX-
441 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD COUNTY.

AT 441 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
CROWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3408 9973 3402 9950 3382 9969 3381 9970
      3384 9990

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HAIL             3 N COOPERTON           34.91N 98.88W
05/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HWYS 19/54

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             10 ENE COOPERTON        34.92N 98.71W
05/19/2011  E2.75 INCH       KIOWA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HWYS 115/19

&&

DW