Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
222 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEGINNING OF A ACTIVE PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTN AS STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTN NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... AND THEN PERHAPS
FARTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER A LOT OF WHAT
OCCURS TOMORROW WILL DEPEND ON LATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER PUSH FROM
ALOFT MAY PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
MAIN SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY/TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONGER SFC FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  77  65  83 /  60  60  40   0
HOBART OK         65  85  61  92 /  40  40  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  84  67  96 /  50  50  30   0
GAGE OK           54  79  50  87 /  30  10  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  78  62  79 /  50  60  60  10
DURANT OK         70  78  67  83 /  60  60  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN... WESTERN...
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  EAST OF THE DRYLINE... THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS
THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...SUCH AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS AND STRONG WINDS TO NEAR 65 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM FRIDAY.

SIX/CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HAIL             4 W BUTLER              35.64N 99.26W
05/19/2011  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             OK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            WILDLIFE OFFICIAL REPORTED NUMEROUS STONE SIZES RANGING
            FROM DIMES TO A FEW PING PONG BALL SIZED STONES.

&&

BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ014-192015-
ROGER MILLS OK-
248 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ROGER MILLS COUNTY.

AT 248 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STRONG CITY...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3584 9970 3585 9965 3585 9963 3587 9956
      3591 9939 3590 9938 3561 9946 3560 9973

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             BLAIR                   34.78N 99.33W
05/19/2011  E1.50 INCH       JACKSON            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

TXZ084-087-192130-
FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
402 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND KNOX COUNTIES.

AT 402 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TRUSCOTT AND 5 MILES NORTH OF GILLILAND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3399 9993 3384 9951 3359 9985 3364 10000
      3377 10001