Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

532 
WWUS84 KOUN 191551
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011


OKZ021-033>036-TXZ083>085-087-088-191700-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FW.W.0031.110519T1800Z-110520T0200Z/
BECKHAM-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-KNOX-
BAYLOR-
1051 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

* HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
  THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE...SLOWLY MOVING...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE FEATURES WILL INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL LIKEWISE
MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
MOST OF THIS WILL BE CAPPED. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS
WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN SUPERCELL
STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY...BUT WITHOUT A CLEAR SUPPORT
MECHANISM...WE WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE DRYLINE THAT IS FORECAST TO ARCH EAST
AGAIN TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER HOT...BREEZY...AND
VERY DRY AFTERNOON TO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST OF THOSE
COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WE WILL DROP THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES BECAUSE IT APPEARS THEY WILL BE NEITHER WARM NOR WINDY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE WARNING. WE WILL ALSO DROP TILLMAN COUNTY
BECAUSE IT IS NOT CURRENTLY ELIGIBLE FOR AN RFW DUE TO THE STATE
OF VEGETATION THERE.

AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UPPER-LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE LARGE-SCALE
FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF GREATLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE FORECAST MODELS...AND
THE OVERALL SETUP...TOMORROW LOOKS A LOT LIKE WEDNESDAY OF LAST
WEEK...WHEN THERE WERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE...WE WILL NEED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN LATER
FORECASTS.

THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BREAK ON SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS
SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEN...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE IT PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST FOR A FEW
DAYS...AND MIDWEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  68  77  65 /  20  50  60  50
HOBART OK         92  65  85  61 /  20  30  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  84  67 /  10  40  50  40
GAGE OK           88  54  79  50 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  67  78  62 /  30  40  60  50
DURANT OK         81  70  78  67 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ021-033>036.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

32/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
719 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
719 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN... WESTERN...
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO PERRY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 11 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY HIGH OR EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL UNTIL
MID-EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE... A DRYLINE WILL AGAIN ADVANCE EAST INTO THE AREA BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY AIR SPREADING ONCE AGAIN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND A DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
THURSDAY.