Severe Thunderstorm Warning 618, NWS Memphis, TN

575 
WWUS54 KMEG 281306
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
806 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARC035-037-077-093-111-123-MSC033-143-TNC157-167-281330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0618.000000T0000Z-110628T1330Z/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-
POINSETT AR-DESOTO MS-TUNICA MS-SHELBY TN-TIPTON TN-
806 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TIPTON...SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN TUNICA...DESOTO...
SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...CRITTENDEN...ST. FRANCIS...NORTHEASTERN
LEE...SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PECAN POINT TO BRIARK TO
RAWLINSON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF WILSON TO
WEST MEMPHIS TO 7 MILES WEST OF HUGHES...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIRDSONG...
EARLE...FORREST CITY...HUGHES...MADISON...MARION...MARKED TREE...
PALESTINE...PARKIN...TURRELL...TYRONZA...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE AND
HERNANDO.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR ARKABUTLA LAKE...BRANDYWINE
  LAKE...CORONEE LAKE...HORN LAKE...HORSESHOE LAKE...LAKE MCKELLAR...
  MIDWAY LAKE...ROBCO LAKE AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 9111 3501 9105 3520 9105 3562 9060
      3552 8961 3509 8970 3473 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1305Z 284DEG 51KT 3546 8996 3515 9008
          3490 9055

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM MIDDLE KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT BY 12Z. THUS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SHOULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SINKING SOUTH AND BY 12Z EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER TODAY WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE THEY WILL HAVE
A LITTLE LONGER TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 90S. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BY THE
WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY START SINKING
SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...READINGS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS SFC WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S THUS HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE GFS IS INDICATING THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SOME WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP A 20 POP OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

KRM

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
40 KTS AND SHOULD IMPACT JBR OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND APPROACH MEM
BY 14-15Z. BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OT 40K KNOTS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE.
ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
RESULTING IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TAFS WILL LIKELY
NEED FREQUENT UPDATES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS RESULT IN
INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  91  73  92  71 /  60  10  10   0
MKL  87  66  90  61 /  60  10  10   0
JBR  89  69  93  68 /  60  10   0   0
TUP  94  70  91  64 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINE
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TNZ053-091-092-281200-
CHESTER TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MORRIS CHAPEL AT 636 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HARDIN AND MCNAIRY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR SAVANNAH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8813 3510 8828 3528 8861 3543 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 302DEG 22KT 3531 8846

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
735 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 AM     TSTM WND DMG     IMBODEN                 36.20N 91.18W
06/28/2011                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0645 AM     HAIL             POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
06/28/2011  M1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN POCAHONTAS

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
06/28/2011                   RANDOLPH           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND A 6 FOOT FENCE BLOWN OVER.

0656 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N IMBODEN             36.22N 91.18W
06/28/2011                   RANDOLPH           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES FALLEN OVER HWY 63 NORTH OF IMBODEN.

0715 AM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
06/28/2011  M69.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           AR   ASOS

            WIND GUST MEASURED AT ASOS SITE IN WALNUT RIDGE

&&

MRM