Severe Thunderstorm Warning 611, NWS Memphis, TN

464 
WWUS54 KMEG 281105
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARC075-121-281130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0611.000000T0000Z-110628T1130Z/
RANDOLPH AR-LAWRENCE AR-
605 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CDT
FOR LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 605 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELM STORE TO ELEVEN POINT TO 10
MILES WEST OF SMITHVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK ROCK TO 18
MILES WEST OF LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK ROCK...
HOXIE...POCAHONTAS...POWHATAN...SMITHVILLE...WALNUT RIDGE...ELM
STORE...ELEVEN POINT...WARM SPRINGS...MIDDLEBROOK...BRAKEBILL...
INGRAM...HAMIL AND ELKINS PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9083 3622 9084 3596 9104 3610 9136
      3623 9136 3625 9133 3625 9127 3632 9127
      3633 9129 3637 9129 3639 9132 3641 9132
      3642 9136 3650 9138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1105Z 292DEG 22KT 3647 9123 3630 9131
          3611 9146

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
210 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM MIDDLE KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT BY 12Z. THUS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SHOULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SINKING SOUTH AND BY 12Z EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER TODAY WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE THEY WILL HAVE
A LITTLE LONGER TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 90S. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BY THE
WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY START SINKING
SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...READINGS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS SFC WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S THUS HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE GFS IS INDICATING THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SOME WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP A 20 POP OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION STARTING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  91  73  92  71 /  60  10  10   0
MKL  87  66  90  61 /  60  10  10   0
JBR  89  69  93  68 /  40  10   0   0
TUP  94  70  91  64 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINE
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

KRM