Severe Thunderstorm Warning 615, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM MIDDLE KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MODELS INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT BY 12Z. THUS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SHOULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SINKING SOUTH AND BY 12Z EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER TODAY WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE THEY WILL HAVE
A LITTLE LONGER TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 90S. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND BY THE
WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY START SINKING
SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...READINGS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS SFC WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S THUS HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE GFS IS INDICATING THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN
SOME WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL KEEP A 20 POP OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

KRM

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
40 KTS AND SHOULD IMPACT JBR OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND APPROACH MEM
BY 14-15Z. BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OT 40K KNOTS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE.
ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
RESULTING IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TAFS WILL LIKELY
NEED FREQUENT UPDATES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS RESULT IN
INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  91  73  92  71 /  60  10  10   0
MKL  87  66  90  61 /  60  10  10   0
JBR  89  69  93  68 /  60  10   0   0
TUP  94  70  91  64 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND AS INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINE
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

TNZ053-091-092-281200-
CHESTER TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MORRIS CHAPEL AT 636 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HARDIN AND MCNAIRY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR SAVANNAH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8813 3510 8828 3528 8861 3543 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 302DEG 22KT 3531 8846