Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jackson, KY

397 
WWUS53 KJKL 091911
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYC025-051-129-175-189-237-091920-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110409T1930Z/
MORGAN KY-WOLFE KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-OWSLEY KY-CLAY KY-
311 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAY...OWSLEY...BREATHITT...
LEE...WOLFE AND MORGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

LAT...LON 3730 8317 3734 8352 3738 8349 3735 8339
      3744 8322 3741 8319 3741 8313 3746 8313
      3753 8307 3751 8302 3751 8297 3756 8302
      3758 8301 3763 8309 3761 8314 3764 8316
      3767 8325 3780 8317 3775 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 279DEG 39KT 3772 8287 3739 8330

$$

KYC071-115-119-153-159-193-091930-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110409T1930Z/
JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-MAGOFFIN KY-FLOYD KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-
311 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
PERRY...NORTHWESTERN KNOTT...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...MAGOFFIN...EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICEVILLE TO WOLF COAL...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PRESTONSBURG...GALDIA...GAPVILLE...BONANZA...BRAINARD...
  FREDVILLE...DECOY...ROWDY...ORDWAY...DICE...WALDO...EAST POINT...
  OAKLAWN ESTATES...DOTSON...BUCK...BAYS BRANCH...AUXIER...DAVID...
  NERO AND CLIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 8317 3734 8352 3738 8349 3735 8339
      3744 8322 3741 8319 3741 8313 3746 8313
      3753 8307 3751 8302 3751 8297 3756 8302
      3758 8301 3763 8309 3761 8314 3764 8316
      3767 8325 3780 8317 3775 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 279DEG 39KT 3772 8287 3739 8330
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

MESO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN OHIO HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE SE AS
IT RIDES OVER THE MID LVL RIDGE. EXPECTING TSTMS TO EXPLODE ACROSS
ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. THEIS COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
DRAG ANY REMAINING STORMS TO OUR EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THE SFC FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN SO ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG... DENSE ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IS LIKELY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE 80S WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS ERN KY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT. THE RAIN COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ON MONDAY SHOULD MODERATE HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

MORE DIFFERENCES THAN SIMILARITIES WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A LULL IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
DIVERGE QUICKLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN
CARRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
EURO DEVELOPS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. EITHER SOLUTION
TENDS TOWARDS THE SAME END RESULT...WITH DRIER AIR INVADING THE
LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR AREA ENSURING QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS DIGGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BY THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING WITH THIS
FEATURE BECOME SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS IS HARD TO COME BY. GIVEN THE NATURE OF
THEIR DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT...TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS GOING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WINDOW WILL NARROW SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS. IN GENERAL...TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EARLY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

EXPECT AN 4000 FT LAYER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO THIS EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR UNDER A
STORM WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE EVENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 03Z WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE
FROM IFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON SUNDAY AND WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-102000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHALLENBERGER/DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     HAIL             EUBANK                  37.28N 84.65W
04/09/2011  M1.75 INCH       PULASKI            KY   PUBLIC

&&

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HAIL             SHELBIANA               37.43N 82.49W
04/09/2011  E0.50 INCH       PIKE               KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
222 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             PIKEVILLE               37.48N 82.51W
04/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             SAND HILL               37.29N 84.26W
04/09/2011  E0.50 INCH       ROCKCASTLE         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED...LARGEST WAS DIME SIZED

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             PIKEVILLE               37.48N 82.51W
04/09/2011  M1.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            FIREMAN REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL VIA PIKEVILLE POLICE
            DEPT

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             3 NW PIKEVILLE          37.51N 82.55W
04/09/2011  M2.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   PUBLIC

            CAR WINDOWS AND HOME WINDOWS BROKEN.

&&

DUSTY