Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Jackson, KY

375 
WWUS53 KJKL 090421
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1221 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYC025-119-193-090445-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110409T0445Z/
BREATHITT KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-
1221 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
PERRY...NORTHWESTERN KNOTT AND BREATHITT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
EDT...

AT 1220 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ARY...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF HAZARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAZARD...HINDMAN...ARY...ELMROCK...TALCUM...BULAN...BEARVILLE...
  FISTY...EMMALENA...VEST...DIABLOCK...RITCHIE...CORDIA...TINA...
  YELLOW MOUNTAIN...CARRIE...BOLYN...SOFT SHELL...JEFF AND ELIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 8329 3741 8282 3716 8318 3747 8350
      3760 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 309DEG 30KT 3737 8317
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

PELTON

985 
WWUS53 KJKL 090437
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYC025-119-193-090445-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110409T0445Z/
BREATHITT KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-
1237 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
PERRY...NORTHWESTERN KNOTT AND EASTERN BREATHITT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM EDT...

AT 1232 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PRESS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF JACKSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HINDMAN...HAZARD...DAISYDELL...NOBLE...ROWDY...DICE...DECOY...
  BUCK...ELMROCK...TALCUM...ARY...BEARVILLE...VEST...TINA...FISTY...
  EMMALENA...YELLOW MOUNTAIN...CARRIE...RITCHIE AND SOFT SHELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8330 3741 8282 3716 8318 3755 8341
      3760 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 305DEG 42KT 3749 8319
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

PELTON

267 
WWUS53 KJKL 090445
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1245 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYC025-119-193-090455-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110409T0445Z/
BREATHITT KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-
1245 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PERRY...NORTHWESTERN
KNOTT AND EASTERN BREATHITT COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER SMALL 
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3763 8330 3741 8282 3716 8318 3755 8341
      3760 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 300DEG 36KT 3753 8327

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1153 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...UPDATED

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA ARE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST...BEING FED BY WARM AND MOIST
INFLOW FROM THE SW. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL ALLOWING FOR ROTATION.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS IN PLACE. THIS
COMBINATION IS ALLOWING THE STRONGEST CELLS TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. SPC ISSUED ANOTHER WATCH TO COVER THESE...AND HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT/

HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM IN OUR NE
COUNTIES. STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE AS WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDS NE INTO THE
REGION. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP THEY HEAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE ALLOWING SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP...WITH HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALLOWED THE WATCH TO EXPIRE IN OUR SW
COUNTIES WHERE STORMS HAD A TOUGH TIME TAKING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND DIED OUT COMPLETED TONIGHT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GOOD WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY BUT ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND INTO THE MID KY REGION. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TONIGHT WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WAVES OF PCPN. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LIFTING ACTION OF A SHORT WAVE
COULD CREATE MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET... COOLING
EFFECTS FROM LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE THE PCPN OUT OF THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT AFTN AND THEN EXIT
AGAIN SAT NITE WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY FINALLY LIFTING FAR ENUF NORTH
FOR A TEMPORARY END TO THE THREAT OF PCPN. KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THRU OUT THIS EVENT AND SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS TO EVER HIGHER VALUES. EXPECTING LOWER 80S FOR
SAT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TONIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 60S SAT
NIGHT.

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS FCST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 9 PM. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND EXPECTING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO WAVE THAT BNDRY
INTO OUR AREA AND ADD THE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTERS AROUND
THE DEEP TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODEL
SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF. LATEST ROUND OF MOS IS STILL
SELLING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. NOT QUITE
READY TO BITE DOWN ON THAT JUST YET AND WILL WAIT TO SEE ONE MORE
ROUND OF DRAMATIC HIGHS COME IN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE TROF. CURRENT CONSENSUS
THEN HAS THE SFC LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWINGING THRU EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE CENTERED HIGHEST POPS AROUND 18Z FOR THE AREA.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WITH AROUND 1000J/KG
AND LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6 C RANGE. WITH THE POTENTIALLY QLCS NATURE
OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY VERTICAL ISENTROPIC SURFACES...WOULD EXPECT
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS
IT MOVES THRU OUR AREA. WITH THE 700MB TROF LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH A TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE THRU
WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH TIME THE EURO...GFS...AND GEM ALL START TAKING
THEIR OWN APPROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FAR
OUT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE
NEIGHBORS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...CONDITIONS
WERE LARGELY VFR. HOWEVER...WHERE STORMS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP...THERE IS WAS VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY 00Z. THE STORMS WERE
FIRING ALONG A COLD FRONT LAID OUT EAST/WEST NEAR INTERSTATE 64. THE
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH TIME TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AFTER ABOUT 04Z. VALLEY
FOG WILL ALSO BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
PROBLEM AT TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS AND VALLEY FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP IN
TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ058-059-
108>115-118-120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/HAL
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-092230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...
LARGE HAIL...FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     HAIL             2 W PIKEVILLE           37.48N 82.55W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   PUBLIC

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     HAIL             3 S ROYALTON            37.63N 83.02W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       MAGOFFIN           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HAIL             VIRGIE                  37.33N 82.58W
04/08/2011  E1.25 INCH       PIKE               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE HAIL WAS BIGGER THAN QUARTERS

&&

DSHALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1143 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ110-113-118-120-090430-
FLOYD-PIKE-KNOTT-LETCHER-
1143 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHERN FLOYD...
   SOUTHWESTERN PIKE...
   EAST CENTRAL KNOTT AND
   NORTHEASTERN LETCHER.

AT 1143 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLO...OR 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF HINDMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...LIGON AROUND
1150 PM EDT...SPEIGHT AROUND 1155 PM EDT...JONANCY AROUND MIDNIGHT
EDT...DORTON AROUND 1205 AM EDT...LOOKOUT AROUND 1210 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IN THESE
AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1151 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             2 S CAMPTON             37.71N 83.55W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       WOLFE              KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DSHALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1200 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     HAIL             ESTILL                  37.46N 82.82W
04/08/2011  E0.75 INCH       FLOYD              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AROUND DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR ESTILL.

&&

JP