Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SHORT TERM

SOUNDINGS INDICATING AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SVR WARNINGS ALREADY FOR THE MOST NRN COUNTIES
WITH HAIL REPORTS BETWEEN PENNY AND NICKEL SIZE. SVR TSTM WATCH 112
ISSUED UNTIL 7 PM. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCLUDE WATCH. REST OF
THE FCST ON TRACK.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/THIS AFTERNOON/

MCS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING. THE SYSTEM IS EVOLVING NOW WITH AN
ELEVATED SECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE EASTWARD INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WEST OF BOWLING GREEN AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
PART OF THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH SBCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A OWENSBORO TO HAZARD LINE.

DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 60S AND SURFACE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12:30 PM EDT PROGRESSING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE
TAIL OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN IMPACTING THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AROUND 1 OR 2 PM.

WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH HOPEFULLY LARGE
HAIL WILL NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AVAILABLE TODAY. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO A CONCERN WITH MODEST SHEAR AND A FRONT IN THE
AREA. A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY IS FLOODING AS THE MCS
PASSES...EFFECTIVELY SHOVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
SETTING UP AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND REPEATING SHOWER/TSTORM
MOVEMENT. 09/12Z HRRR HINTS AT THIS SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY
CLOSELY WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE) TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

/THE REST OF TODAY/...1005 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

LINE OF STRONG STORMS PROGRESSING THRU WRK KY THIS MORNING. TRACKING
TO THE EAST AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT ERN KY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOST
ALL OF ERN KY SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS. TIMING WILL PUT THE LINE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEARING WX TONIGHT. WILL LOOK INTO THE
PROBABILITY FOR FOG IN THE MORNING BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE OUR WRN
COUNTIES FROM WARMING AS MUCH AS THE ERN COUNTIES SO HIGHS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DIFFERENCE.

/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...426 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS 0F 0730Z SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AS IT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN CWA ARE WELL
SATURATED FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS AND AS A RESULT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
VALLEY FOG...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL ESCAPE VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THE FOG WITH AN SPS. THE SOUTHERN CWA WAS WAS
SPARED FROM LOSING ANY INSTABILITY TO FUEL YESTERDAYS STORMS. AN MCS
CURRENTLY OUT OF MO AND INTO KY WHICH MAY IGNITE SOME EARLY
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERN KY BEFORE 15Z. ALONG WITH THE MCS IS A
HINT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ROUGHLY 17Z TO
19Z JUST IN TIME FOR AMPLE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THERE IS ALSO
A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE SW CWA THIS MORNING BUT THE PROSPECT ONLY WARRANTS A
SLIGHT CHANCE.

CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS DO BRING A WAVE UP OVER
THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS POSSIBLE OF SOME CONTAMINATION
FROM THE MCS BUT ALL MODELS DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WAVE. A BIT MORE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR TODAY AND GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IS PRESENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AVAILABLE...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN SHIFT...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR WEATHER WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...AN EVENT
THAT BEGINS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN OR 02Z. THIS
IS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE MCS LOSES ITS SELF SUSTAINING
CHARACTERISTICS.

BY SUNDAY THE DEVELOPED WARM FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WAR SECTOR. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WITH SW FLOW ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL SKY
ROCKET TO NEAR 90 IN SOME PLACES. GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CREATE A DRY 25 MPH SW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW THE AREA RESPONDS
TO YESTERDAYS AND TODAYS RAINS...FIRE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTERS AROUND
THE DEEP TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODEL
SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF. LATEST ROUND OF MOS IS STILL
SELLING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. NOT QUITE
READY TO BITE DOWN ON THAT JUST YET AND WILL WAIT TO SEE ONE MORE
ROUND OF DRAMATIC HIGHS COME IN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE TROF. CURRENT CONSENSUS
THEN HAS THE SFC LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWINGING THRU EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE CENTERED HIGHEST POPS AROUND 18Z FOR THE AREA.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WITH AROUND 1000J/KG
AND LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6 C RANGE. WITH THE POTENTIALLY QLCS NATURE
OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY VERTICAL ISENTROPIC SURFACES...WOULD EXPECT
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS
IT MOVES THRU OUR AREA. WITH THE 700MB TROF LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH A TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE THRU
WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH TIME THE EURO...GFS...AND GEM ALL START TAKING
THEIR OWN APPROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FAR
OUT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE
NEIGHBORS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT AN 4000 FT LAYER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO THIS EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR UNDER A
STORM WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE EVENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 03Z WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE
FROM IFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON SUNDAY AND WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER/DUSTY
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-102000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHALLENBERGER/DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     HAIL             CLAYHOLE                37.47N 83.30W
04/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   POST OFFICE

&&

TBREWER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-091645-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   FLEMING...
   ROWAN...
   BATH...
   MONTGOMERY...
   MENIFEE AND
   NORTH CENTRAL POWELL.

AT 1153 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIDEVIEW TO MEANS...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF STANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 38.13N 83.58W
04/09/2011  M0.50 INCH       BATH               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGEST HAIL WAS ABOUT DIME SIZED

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             3 NW MOREHEAD           38.22N 83.48W
04/09/2011  E0.75 INCH       ROWAN              KY   PUBLIC

            HWY 158

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
04/09/2011  E0.25 INCH       BATH               KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TBREWER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ110-113-118-120-091745-
FLOYD-PIKE-KNOTT-LETCHER-
110 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 145
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD...
   SOUTHWESTERN PIKE...
   SOUTHERN KNOTT AND
   NORTHERN LETCHER.

AT 110 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELIC...OR 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HINDMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...AMBURGEY AROUND
115 PM EDT...MALLIE AROUND 120 PM EDT...PIPPA PASSES AROUND 125 PM
EDT...KITE AROUND 130 PM EDT...DRY CREEK AROUND 135 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

ABE