Alert archive / Kentucky / Areal Flood Advisories in 2011

Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Jackson, KY

April 9, 20119 counties in Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this areal flood advisory at Apr 9, 2011, 5:03 PM EDT for 9 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 9, 2011, 5:03 PM EDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired: Apr 9, 2011, 7:07 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Breathitt County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Knott County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 589 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 257 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Apr 9, 2:01 PM EDT, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 2:01 PM EDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

MESO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN OHIO HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE SE AS
IT RIDES OVER THE MID LVL RIDGE. EXPECTING TSTMS TO EXPLODE ACROSS
ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. THEIS COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
DRAG ANY REMAINING STORMS TO OUR EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THE SFC FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN SO ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG... DENSE ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IS LIKELY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE 80S WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS ERN KY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT. THE RAIN COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ON MONDAY SHOULD MODERATE HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

MORE DIFFERENCES THAN SIMILARITIES WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A LULL IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
DIVERGE QUICKLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN
CARRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
EURO DEVELOPS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. EITHER SOLUTION
TENDS TOWARDS THE SAME END RESULT...WITH DRIER AIR INVADING THE
LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR AREA ENSURING QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS DIGGING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BY THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING WITH THIS
FEATURE BECOME SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION OVER THE OTHERS IS HARD TO COME BY. GIVEN THE NATURE OF
THEIR DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT...TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS GOING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WINDOW WILL NARROW SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS. IN GENERAL...TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EARLY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

EXPECT AN 4000 FT LAYER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO THIS EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR UNDER A
STORM WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE EVENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 03Z WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE
FROM IFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON SUNDAY AND WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 9, 12:52 PM EDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-102000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHALLENBERGER/DUSTY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:23 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARLAN                  36.84N 83.32W
04/09/2011                   HARLAN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO. TREES DOWN...ROOFS BLOWN OFF
            INCLUDING A SMALL SUPERMARKET.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:25 PM EDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             PIKEVILLE               37.48N 82.51W
04/09/2011  U1.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL VEHICLES DAMAGED BY HAIL AT THE STATE POLICE
            POST.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:29 PM EDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
429 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOLIVER                 37.81N 83.46W
04/09/2011                   WOLFE              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...BARN AND HOUSE ON
            CHAPELS BRANCH.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:30 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             BUSH                    37.09N 83.87W
04/09/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:32 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
432 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             EUBANK                  37.28N 84.65W
04/09/2011  M2.75 INCH       PULASKI            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Apr 9, 4:54 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
454 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             LITTCARR                37.24N 82.95W
04/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       KNOTT              KY   PUBLIC

&&

ABE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 8, 8:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Knott, Magoffin, Perry, Wolfe	25 min
Apr 8, 8:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Menifee, Morgan, Rowan	41 min
Apr 8, 8:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Elliott, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan, Rowan	26 min
Apr 8, 9:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Elliott, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan	47 min
Apr 8, 9:19 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Elliott, Johnson, Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan and 1 more	3 hr
Apr 8, 9:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Powell, Wolfe	49 min
Apr 8, 9:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Martin	32 min
Apr 8, 9:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Johnson, Magoffin, Martin, Morgan, Pike	45 min
Apr 8, 9:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Magoffin, Morgan, Wolfe	42 min
Apr 8, 9:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee, Montgomery, Powell, Wolfe	50 min
Apr 8, 9:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Magoffin, Morgan	31 min
Apr 8, 10:07 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Floyd, Johnson, Magoffin, Martin, Menifee, Montgomery and 4 more	2 hr
Apr 8, 10:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Magoffin, Martin, Pike	63 min
Apr 8, 10:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Magoffin, Morgan and 1 more	45 min
Apr 8, 10:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee, Powell, Wolfe	42 min
Apr 8, 10:53 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin, Pike	2 hr
Apr 8, 11:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Lee, Magoffin, Wolfe	49 min
Apr 8, 11:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Pike	37 min
Apr 9, 12:03 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Knott, Perry	42 min
Apr 9, 12:48 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt	103 min
Apr 9, 11:59 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Menifee, Montgomery, Rowan	46 min
Apr 9, 12:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Fleming, Rowan	39 min
Apr 9, 1:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Pike	46 min
Apr 9, 1:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski, Rockcastle	50 min
Apr 9, 1:44 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Wolfe	31 min
Apr 9, 1:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee, Menifee, Powell, Wolfe	42 min
Apr 9, 1:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Pike	40 min
Apr 9, 1:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Pike	28 min
Apr 9, 1:54 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Laurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle	36 min
Apr 9, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley, Rockcastle	47 min
Apr 9, 2:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Elliott, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Rowan	44 min
Apr 9, 2:05 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Elliott, Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan, Wolfe	40 min
Apr 9, 2:20 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and 2 more	4 hr
Apr 9, 2:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Knott, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan and 1 more	40 min
Apr 9, 2:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle	37 min
Apr 9, 2:27 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Floyd, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan	33 min
Apr 9, 2:31 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Knox, Laurel, Pulaski	44 min
Apr 9, 2:32 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Owsley	43 min
Apr 9, 2:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley	24 min
Apr 9, 2:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Lee and 6 more	47 min
Apr 9, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Clay, Harlan, Knox, Laurel, Leslie and 1 more	32 min
Apr 9, 3:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Clay, Leslie, Owsley, Perry	29 min
Apr 9, 3:05 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Pike	4 hr
Apr 9, 3:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Harlan, Knox, Laurel, Leslie, Whitley	50 min
Apr 9, 3:11 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Letcher, Magoffin and 3 more	109 min
Apr 9, 3:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Floyd, Johnson, Knott, Letcher, Magoffin and 3 more	46 min
Apr 9, 3:21 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Knott, Leslie, Letcher, Perry, Pike	39 min
Apr 9, 3:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Bell, Harlan, Leslie, Letcher, Perry	34 min
Apr 9, 3:30 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Floyd, Pike	45 min
Apr 9, 3:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Harlan	18 min
Apr 9, 4:14 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt	3 hr
Apr 9, 4:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Leslie	47 min
Apr 9, 5:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan, Leslie, Letcher, Perry	35 min

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Kentucky, 2011 Every areal flood advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.